The Canadian Armed Forces have analyzed, for the first time in the last century, a scenario of a military invasion of Canada by the United States and the possible reactions of the Canadian state.
The information appears in a piece published by the Canadian press, discussing an increasingly visible rift between two traditional allies, against the backdrop of pressures and recent statements coming from Washington.
According to the publication Globe and Mail, citing two high-ranking government officials, the Canadian military has modeled a scenario in which American forces could launch an invasion from the south and potentially seize Canada's strategic positions on land and at sea in less than a week – possibly even in two days.
"Canada cannot withstand a conventional American attack"
Canadian officials acknowledge that Canada lacks both the military personnel and the sophisticated equipment necessary to face a conventional US attack.
In these circumstances, the military strategists' analyzed scenario excludes a conventional confrontation and relies on a different type of response.
The Canadian military is considering an unconventional war, based on guerrilla tactics: ambushes, sabotage, drone attacks, and "hit-and-run" operations carried out by small guerrilla fighter units or even armed civilians.
Lessons from Afghanistan, adapted for Canada
One of the officials cited explained that the model includes tactics used by Afghan mujahideen in the war against Soviet troops from 1979 to 1989, as well as methods later used by the Taliban in the 20-year conflict with US-led forces – a conflict in which Canada also participated.
"The purpose of such tactics would be to inflict massive losses on the American occupation forces," said the official quoted by Globe and Mail.
Retired Major General David Fraser, who commanded Canadian troops in Afghanistan alongside the American military, believes Ottawa could even use drones and anti-tank weapons, similar to those currently used in the war between Russia and Ukraine.
First signs of an invasion: breaking the "common sky"
A Defense Ministry official stated that in such a scenario, Canada would have at most three months to prepare for a land and sea invasion.
According to the cited source, the first indications that the US might be preparing a military operation would come when Washington announces the end of the "common sky" policy with Canada.
Such a rupture of common defense agreements could prompt Ottawa to seek support from France or the United Kingdom, both nuclear-armed states, to ensure Canada's defense, as noted by Globe and Mail.
Trump, Greenland, and "the 51st state"
The context in which these scenarios arise is not abstract. The Canadian publication reminds that US President Donald Trump has repeatedly pressured NATO allies, demanding that the US acquire Greenland and threatening European states with tariffs if they oppose this plan. Additionally, Trump has mentioned multiple times the possibility of Canada becoming "the 51st state" of America.
Nevertheless, Canadian officials and several experts consulted by Globe and Mail consider it unlikely for the Trump administration to actually order a military invasion of Canada.
Chinese expert: "A clear signal that Ottawa will not yield easily"
Chinese military affairs expert Zhang Junshe stated that the Canadian military "is not comparable to the American one in a frontal conflict," emphasizing that the ground, naval, and air forces of the two countries are at completely different levels, and Canada has long relied on the US for its defense.
In his opinion, Ottawa's analyzed response is asymmetric. "Canada is a country with vast territory, and its forces are stronger than those of Afghanistan, so it could pose a high level of threat to the US," said Zhang.
He believes that simply modeling such a scenario sends a clear political message: "It reflects Canada's sense of crisis and shows that it will not easily yield to pressures or intimidation from the US." Zhang also does not rule out that Canadian authorities may be aiming for a deterrent effect.
"At the very least, the situation indicates a serious rift between the two old allies," the expert concluded.
G.P.