When an Iranian official presented a list of demands this week to end the war started by the United States and Israel, he added a point that had not been on Tehran’s list before: recognition of Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.
This narrow waterway, through which a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) usually passes, has become the most potent weapon of the Islamic Republic.
And now it is trying to turn it into both a source of annual billions of dollars in revenue and a pressure point on the global economy, writes CNN in an extensive analysis.
Iran has long threatened to close the strait in the event of an attack, but few expected it to carry out this threat - or for it to prove so effective in disrupting global trade flows. The scope of the impact seems to have expanded Tehran's ambitions, and the new demands suggest that it is trying to turn this lever into a more sustainable one.
Maritime transport through this strategic point has almost come to a halt due to Iranian attacks, throwing global energy markets into chaos and forcing countries far beyond the Persian Gulf to take emergency measures to secure their fuel supplies.
"Iran was somewhat surprised by how successful its (Hormuz-related) strategy has been - how cheap and relatively easy it is to hold the global economy hostage. One of the lessons learned in this war is that it has discovered this new lever and is likely to use it again in the future. And monetizing it is part of this discovery," said Dina Esfandiary, Middle East expert at Bloomberg Economics.
US Warns of Danger
Washington is fully aware of this risk. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned on Friday that one of the immediate post-war challenges will be Tehran's attempt to establish a toll system in the Strait of Hormuz.
"Not only is this illegal, it is unacceptable, it is dangerous for the world and it is important for the world to have a plan to counter it," Rubio said after a G7 meeting in France. The group's foreign ministers emphasized the "absolute necessity" of restoring "safe and toll-free navigation."
In a reference to the increasing strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, Mojtaba Khamenei said in his first speech as Iran's new Supreme Leader that the leverage of blocking this waterway "must continue to be used."
In previous rounds of negotiations with the US, Iran insisted on lifting sanctions and recognizing its right to peaceful nuclear technology, but not on controlling the Strait of Hormuz. Now, Iran signals that this lever could be formalized.
Iran Prepares Law
Iranian lawmakers are considering a draft law that would require countries using the strait for fuel and goods transportation to pay fees, and an advisor to the Supreme Leader spoke of a "new regime for the Strait of Hormuz" after the war. This new system would allow Tehran to impose maritime restrictions on adversaries and effectively block access to one of the world's most important sea routes due to its geopolitical disputes.
"Imposing transit fees is a violation of passage rules," said James Kraska, professor of international maritime law at the US Naval War College. There is no legal basis in international law for a coastal state to charge fees in an international strait like Hormuz, he added.
"The Strait of Hormuz is a strait used for international navigation, with overlapping territorial waters of Iran and Oman. Iranian and Omani laws apply in these waters. However, since it is an international strait, the right of passage for all states applies, allowing unrestricted surface, aerial, and underwater transit," he explained.
The rules are set by the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Although neither Iran nor the United States are parties to this convention, Kraska says many of its basic principles still apply as widely accepted principles of customary international law. However, Iran may try to use its non-adherence to strengthen its arguments.
There are few precedents for a state to successfully charge passage through an international strait. In the 19th century, Denmark imposed transit fees through the Danish straits, but following protests from several states, it accepted the 1857 Copenhagen Convention, definitively abolishing the so-called "Sound dues."
Rivaling the Suez Canal
This has not stopped Iran from exploring what such a system might look like or how profitable it could be.
Experts wonder if Iran could establish a toll system that would be internationally accepted, but if successful, the revenues could rival those generated by Egypt's Suez Canal, according to CNN estimates.
Normally, about 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products pass through the Strait of Hormuz daily, equivalent to about 10 very large crude carriers (VLCCs). At a reported fee of $2 million per vessel, this would mean approximately $20 million per day, or around $600 million per month, just from oil.
If LNG shipments are included, the amount could exceed $800 million per month, equivalent to about 15% - 20% of Iran's monthly oil export revenues in 2024.
By comparison, Egypt earns between $700 million and $800 million per month from the Suez Canal, a state-controlled artificial waterway, in a typical year, although revenues have significantly declined in the past year due to disruptions in the Red Sea.
Monetizing the Hormuz could also be driven by economic pressures on Iran. Esfandiary said Tehran sees transit tolls as a way to "offset some of the economic deficits" caused by sanctions, describing it as a relatively "simple" and "low-cost" mechanism to compensate for limited access to global markets. Iran is one of the most sanctioned countries in the world, surpassed only by Russia.
Are Vessels Already Paying Tolls?
Tehran seems to be already testing what a transit-controlled system would look like in practice. Ship monitoring data shows that some tankers are using a route closer to Iran's coast, with reports that certain operators have paid for safe passage.
No country, importer, or shipping operator has publicly acknowledged paying a toll, and details remain unclear. However, maritime intelligence company Lloyd's List reported that over 20 vessels have used what it described as a new corridor through the strait, with at least two of them paying for it - one of them approximately $2 million.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran has also instituted a registration system for approved vessels, and some governments are negotiating directly with Tehran to ensure the transit of their tankers, according to the same source.
"This is happening. And I suspect it will happen a little more frequently if we don't see progress in negotiations," said Richard Meade of Lloyd's List to CNN.