Rating agency Moody’s has confirmed Romania’s rating at „Baa3” on Friday, with the outlook remaining negative.
The decision to maintain the negative outlook reflects significant implementation risks related to the Government’s ambitious fiscal consolidation program, as stated in a Moody’s report.
According to the cited source, the fiscal measures adopted by the Government in July and September this year have significantly improved Romania's fiscal prospects compared to the agency's expectations, which in March changed the outlook from stable to negative.
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The combined consolidation measures exceed 3% of GDP in 2025 and 2026, with the main contributing factors being increases in Value Added Tax and the indexing of salary freezes in the public sector and pensions.
“However, there remain significant risks regarding implementation, related to maintaining political support for the program, ensuring expenditure discipline and achieving revenue growth targets, as well as the risk that the negative impact on growth of the package may undermine the fiscal consolidation effort,” the rating agency stated.
Last month, the international financial rating agency Fitch reaffirmed Romania's sovereign rating at BBB-/F3 for long-term and short-term foreign currency debt, but maintained a negative outlook.
“The decision to reaffirm the sovereign rating is supported, in the agency's opinion, by the European Union membership status and capital inflows from the European Union supporting real income convergence and external financing, as well as the positive evolution of GDP per capita and governance indicators, which are at higher levels compared to countries in the same rating category (“BBB”),” the Ministry of Finance announced in a press release.