The question is no longer whether President Donald Trump has lost control over the discourse about his new war in Iran. But whether he has lost control over the war itself.
Wars, once started, create their own insidious momentum, which can surpass the White House’s political message. And if this defies a president’s ability to determine their direction, quicksand appears in the political field.
After the thunderous start of the conflict with the assassination of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Trump's team could have hoped to be in a better situation after three weeks. Instead, the way out remains impossible to find, as shown in an analysis by CNN.
While the United States and Israel undoubtedly caused massive destruction to Tehran's military-industrial complex and repression machines, Iran has taken the initiative, expanding the impact of the war. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil transport route, threatens to paralyze the global economy.
However, things could worsen, the source cited emphasizes.
The world starts asking questions
Regional oil and gas installations in the Gulf region are under attack. Trump insisted on Thursday that he did not know that Israel planned to attack Iran's South Pars gas field. CNN sources contradicted his statement, otherwise hard to understand given the close coordination between the US and Israel. The President then said he told Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to "not do it."
But the episode only exacerbated MAGA critics' concern that Israel, not the United States, is leading the war.
US allies in the Gulf, targeted for days by rockets and drones, are frustrated that the economic miracle depicted in their futuristic urban landscapes is in danger due to a war started by their American ally, which they did not want.
The Trump administration, which never clarified the story of the Iranian nuclear threat used as a justification for war, has not offered any plan so far for what Trump means when he says it will end "soon." Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned on Thursday that there are no clear timelines for an exit from the conflict. "Ultimately, it will be up to the president to say, 'Hey, we've done what we need to do in the name of the American people to ensure our security,'" he said.
However, members of Congress, to whom the administration is expected to request up to $200 billion to fund more war, and possibly even more, will demand more answers.
"People in Alaska ask me how long this will continue? Will there be boots on the ground, how much will it cost?" Senator Lisa Murkowski told CNN. These questions are particularly acute in Alaska, which has one of the highest concentrations of active-duty soldiers and veterans.
The tiny Republican majority is about to face its biggest test and this question: If MAGA dissenting Republicans oppose, will they truly help Trump fund his war in a midterm election year? Here is the answer from House Speaker Mike Johnson: "We'll find out."
Iran loses, but still wins
Meanwhile, Trump remains in his cocky position. "We've destroyed almost everything that needed to be destroyed," he declared in the Oval Office on Thursday.
And Hegseth scolded reporters who "think that, after just 19 days since the beginning of this conflict, we are somehow heading towards an endless abyss, an eternal war, or a quagmire."
To a certain extent, he is right, CNN notes. Thousands of American and Israeli missile and drone strikes have certainly brought operational victory. Iran's ability to threaten its region must have now become just a fraction of what it was. But have these fatal blows weakened the political foundation of the Tehran regime? National Intelligence Director Tulsi Gabbard stated on Wednesday that it has been degraded but "seems intact".
Perhaps Iran is losing Trump's war. But it is winning its own war.
A brutal regime that has killed thousands of people has one goal: its own survival. This means increasing the economic price for the rest of the world - and, therefore, the political pressure on Trump.
Trump is approaching the toughest choice
It has already been demonstrated that stopping tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is a powerful weapon. It is strange, therefore, that the administration did not anticipate its use. "(You) don't need to worry about it," Hegseth said seven days ago about this vital waterway.
Maritime experts warn that reopening the strait will be dangerous. Aerial bombardment has limited effect. A substantial ground force may be needed to eliminate the drone and missile launch sites from the mountainous terrain bordering the Strait. Therefore, Trump is approaching a fateful choice that almost every modern supreme commander has faced: to get out of a war, do you first need to escalate the conflict?
"I will not send troops anywhere. If I did, I certainly wouldn't tell you, but I will not send troops," the President told reporters on Thursday.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested lifting sanctions on Iranian oil already at sea to try to lower oil prices. This would mean that the US would allow its enemy a way to finance its war effort.
Even if it's a ruse to calm oil markets, the Trump administration is still talking about a rapidly growing crisis.
Where is the plan?
It seems there is no plan.
"I don't think we have any idea what our objective is at this point. It seems to be changing by the day and, you know, it just wasn't anticipated that this would be a protracted war when it really should have been," said Nate Swanson, who was Iran director at the National Security Council in the Biden administration and was part of Trump's Iran negotiating team in early 2025.
Washington has been betting for days on the moment when Trump will declare victory and bring the troops home. But the spiraling conflict means he may no longer have that option.
"No one can offer perfection in times of war," Hegseth said on Thursday.
After starting a new war, Trump does not control how long it will last, where it will spread, how much it will cost, and how much it will complicate the lives of inflation-weary Americans. And he is in danger of defining his second presidency, CNN concludes.
T.D.