At the time of writing, the presidential final has one certainty: Călin Georgescu, a little-known figure, neo-Legionary, pro-Russian, and deliriously mystical, has won the first round within the country’s borders. Probably Romania’s biggest electoral shock and one of Europe’s biggest.
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A candidate seemingly coming out of nowhere, without a party backing, completely missed by the majority of opinion polls, except INSCOP and, towards the end, Atlasintel, completely ignored by the main candidates. How and from where?
There will be many analyses; we will see to what extent there is an influence from Russia, a not improbable scenario. And here is an essential discussion about what the intelligence services could and should have anticipated. But there are also other types of causes that have been ignored for too long.
1. Călin Georgescu has been the beneficiary of a spectacular, immense spiral of silence. Obviously, people determined to vote for him have hidden their choice. Why? Primarily to avoid a certain type of political bullying reserved for those with unorthodox opinions. If democracy had been more respected and less proclaimed, options would have been more visible, and the danger of Georgescu would have been seen coming.
2. The terrible ignorance of a large part of the population. Călin Georgescu is an apologist for Legionarism, idealized due to the mystification of history. He spoke about this in an interview for spotmedia.ro in 2022, historian Mădălin Hodor.
"The problem is this silent mass, this opaque and compact layer of society, which receives nothing and no one. And it is the majority today.
If we do not understand that we are the ones who must offer them a solution, we are obliged to help them and recover them, it is only a matter of time before a hand emerges from this thick mess that will strangle us all.
In the end, our luck is that those in AUR are intellectually unmotivated and primitive people. What will we do, however, if an intelligent, charismatic character appears and mobilizes this imminent explosion?", said Mădălin Hodor.
3. Frustration of a large part of the population abandoned by mainstream parties, with their troubles, fears, and expectations. Different, of course, in terms of education levels, geographic areas, but equally ignored.
And the immense humiliation, defiance of the shameless President Iohannis, who has stirred in Romanians an unfathomable hatred.
4. Poor governance with dramatic economic effects. It's no use telling people that everything is fine and prosperous when it's getting harder for them. Romania has the highest inflation in the EU, is rapidly getting into debt, missing out on the PNRR. People receive slogans that neither fill their pockets nor bellies in return.
5. Media failure, politicized, funded by parties, with social networks taking over in directing opinions.
6. The illusion of bubbles. On social networks, everyone lives in their bubble and feels it is representative. What is not there does not exist. But it does!
7. Short-sighted maneuver. Without the maneuver of consolidation and common lists, this wave of anger would have dissipated in June, leaving time for recovery until local, regular, presidential, and parliamentary elections.
And the removal of Diana Șoșoacă has not directed the vote towards George Simion, but towards something much more dangerous and toxic. As warned, whoever imagined that Diana Șoșoacă's supporters, who accused Simion of being a traitor, would flock to him was simplistic. They slipped under the radar and found their true guru waiting for them. And the effect will likely be seen in the parliamentary elections, probably in the score of Mrs. Șoșoacă's party.
8. The miserable candidate offering, the weakest in the last 30 years.
We have two weeks to understand what happened and avoid the final disaster. It won't be easy because Mr. Georgescu now has a fantastic aura, is charismatic, and if people do not understand what he represents, the calamity will be total.