Mircea Geoană’s mission in this year’s electoral competition is not very difficult from the perspective of the candidates’ competition. The situation is exactly as he recently described it in Alba Iulia, himself.
„The country has been and is being led by a political generation increasingly incompetent and devoid of true love for the country. For years, we have seen too many politicians struggling between greed and incompetence. There are many politicians who do not know economics, do not know legislation, do not have any proven qualifications, and yet they lead governments, ministries, agencies, and state-owned companies.
Politicians who have hardly learned anything in their lives, lack basic knowledge, and yet, they reach positions on which the fate of millions of Romanians depends.
It has become almost unimaginable for a Romanian minister or prime minister to be able to speak a foreign language. This at a time when, if a leader does not speak at least English, they condemn their nation to isolation. And when these leaders express themselves in Romanian, sometimes you feel like the class monitor is talking to you."
It cannot be contradicted, when the prime minister confuses 'portofelu' with 'portofoliu', and the Minister of Justice gives lessons on the orthopedic dictionary of the Romanian language. Certainly, a large part of Romanians resonated with Mr. Geoană's statement. And they even felt refreshed by it.
In this context, the simple fact that Mr. Geoană speaks correct and fluent Romanian, that he has a coherence of ideas, is already a reassuring novelty. Added to this is, of course, his indisputable external stature and the fact that he has earned his current position through his own efforts.
Indeed, the Romanian state did not oppose, as in the case of Ms. Kovesi, but neither have we seen any mobilization of support or any great satisfaction. Furthermore, when invoking the injustice done to Easterners in the distribution of positions, Mr. Iohannis seems to ignore the fact that for years, the number 2 in NATO is actually a Romanian.
The comparison is all the more striking as we witness the painful efforts of the "yes-men" with which the current president has filled the key positions in the state to propel Goe Iohannis into an office for which he kicks, convinced that he deserves it.
Furthermore, Mircea Geoană has the image of independence, very convenient for a majority that detests parties, and which he would not have been able to secure so well, as a former party president, without the help of the increasingly vehement attacks from PSD which continue.
In these conditions, the major battle of these presidential elections probably will not be, for the first time, about the candidates themselves, much less about their visions.
The major battle will be fought with the machinery of the two major coalition parties starting from the first round
Will the PSD and PNL candidates, traditionally favored for the second round, manage to rev up their party machinery enough to propel them into the final?
Yes, it happened with Viorica Dăncilă, but back then there was no alternative candidate like Geoană.
Even the calendar does not help. Local organizations will have already seen themselves in a bind, campaigning in August is a nightmare, especially after the efforts made in May.
Will the party machineries follow the calls of the electorate? As we see, in large urban areas, things have changed a lot. The electorate, even a loyal sympathizer of a party, does not respond to commands.
As evidence, the potential PSD and PNL candidates for the presidential elections are at most on par with the party's score, if not much lower. So, they are not locomotives and need to be pulled by the machinery.
And this is the foreseeable weakness of Mircea Geoană, as recently emphasized by Rareș Bogdan. He lacks a large party machinery to run for him in the campaign, to organize for him, to mobilize the electorate, to guard his votes in polling stations.
But will he manage to emerge as the clear favorite? Will there not be organizations - especially from the PSD - that will pragmatically choose to support him as an investment in the future?
The expectation and, equally, the fear of the PSD leaders is that a victorious Mircea Geoană will follow the model of Iohannis, placing his people in key positions of the party, up to the top, and thus taking over from Cotroceni.
On the other hand, can the support of a news television channel with a large audience do this mobilization work? Especially a television channel linked to a party that has ambitions for a high score this year? Whoever is directly or indirectly associated with the winner of the presidential elections will receive a substantial bonus for the parliamentary elections in winter.
So, the major battle is shaping up in the first round. The battle for the PSD and PNL machineries to mobilize enough to send their candidates to the second round and keep Mircea Geoană out of the final. Because once he gets there, it would be very difficult to defeat him by any of the party candidates.
And PNL, but especially PSD, have reasons to fear that a victory of Mircea Geoană would completely change the political game, not necessarily for the better of the country, but certainly for the worse for the two leaderships. And not at all comfortable for Klaus Iohannis and his ambition to remain the master of the game in his own interest.