The President of Russia is known to swim in the morning, and on Saturday, February 28, at 08:00, when he received the first reports that Israel’s military forces had bombed Tehran, he was not too surprised.
The massing of American aircraft carriers and destroyers in the Mediterranean and Arabian Seas, the preparations made in American bases in the Persian Gulf region, as well as the diplomatic alerts for the withdrawal of diplomatic personnel, were strong signals that Donald Trump, the President of the USA, and Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, would soon give the order to attack.
But the big surprise for Vladimir Putin was when an hour later, through unofficial channels, he received the first information that Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, who had been in power for 36 years, was eliminated along with the top military leaders, President Masoud Pezeshkian, and other officials of the ruling elite.
The Giant with Feet of Clay
It is for the second time in the last two months that the US administration has removed the dictatorial leadership of a country allied with Russia. Nicolas Maduro, the President of Venezuela, along with his wife, were extracted following a lightning military operation from the presidential palace and transported to America, where they will be judged.
Only this is sensational and extremely worrying for Vladimir Putin. The way the US acts on the international stage is the clearest indicator that Russia no longer represents much in terms of global influence.
In the new context created, the Russian leader cannot avoid facing the biggest strategic error made by a head of state since World War II.
There is much talk about the changing world order, and indeed, we are all witnessing it. In reality, it was provoked by the wrong decision taken by Vladimir Putin to invade Ukraine. Russia's military failure has revealed:
- The weaknesses of the army;
- Technological limitations;
- The deficit and weak ability to gather and process information;
- A true rupture in the operational planning - command - execution chain;
Exactly what Vladimir Putin needed to hide the most, the fact that his army is a giant with feet of clay, has been revealed to the whole world.
Military Gap
In order to resist in the occupied territories after the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the fall of 2022, Putin heavily relied on Iran's support, which transferred tens of thousands of drones to Russia, setting up assembly centers for them, and also on China, which offered support to Russia through various channels, especially in terms of technology for the arms industry.
Khamenei, one of the worst people in history, has died. This is not only justice for the Iranian people, but also for all great Americans and people from many countries around the world who have been killed or mutilated by Khamenei and his band of... bloodthirsty. He failed to evade our intelligence services and our sophisticated tracking systems, and by working closely with Israel, there was nothing he or the other leaders killed with him could do...
Donald Trump, President of the USA, post on Truth Social, after the elimination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
But Russia's weakness has not gone unnoticed by the USA, Israel, and very likely, Great Britain and France.
In May 2022, the CIA, the main intelligence agency of the USA, launched a significant program to recruit Russians dissatisfied with the war initiated by Vladimir Putin.
The program was successful if we look at how dramatically Russia's influence in the world has plummeted, disappearing from all areas it controlled or was a player in before the invasion of Ukraine - Syria, Africa, Venezuela, Lebanon, Iran.
Furthermore, with Russia exiting the stage, Israel has consolidated its informational control over Iran, attempting and succeeding in undermining Tehran's efforts to obtain nuclear weapons.
But something else has happened. The rapid evolution of technology has created a huge gap between Western states and autocratic regimes, including China, which invests the most in propaganda and technology.
The widening gap is a result of the economic power of the USA, which no country in the world can keep up with, its enormous capacity for innovation, and its unparalleled military budget.
After the failures in Iraq and, especially, Afghanistan, where the US armed forces achieved rapid military victories but suffered a major failure in terms of political assistance and institutional transfer, the American doctrine has changed, especially during Donald Trump's mandates, which focused on surgical strikes, achieving immediate military objectives, and forcibly removing authoritarian leaders, without this being followed by political intervention, meaning the imposition of a certain government.
Impact on Ukraine-Russia Negotiations
The USA no longer undertakes regime change, but only the removal of leaders who become a threat to American interests.
This is best seen in Venezuela, where Trump only got involved declaratively in the politics there. He did not even impose a deadline for organizing free elections.
But after such a show of force, the political leaders who fill the power vacuum will act knowing very well that at any moment they can be removed through a new surgical strike.
From the perspective of international law, such a change is problematic, requiring a rapid strengthening of the European Union, which, through the influence and economic power of its 500 million citizens, can balance the scales and temper military excesses.
The removal by the USA and Israel of a criminal dictatorial regime, which has consistently and cruelly tortured and killed its own citizens over the last five decades, sends a strong signal not only to Vladimir Putin and his circle of influence but also to everyone that their power has significantly diminished.
Regardless of the propaganda stunts the Kremlin regime may attempt, it is quite clear to everyone that the Russian leader no longer represents much, and there are two solutions left on the negotiating table with Ukraine:
- a ceasefire with security guarantees from the USA-Europe, peacekeeping forces deployed in Ukraine, and non-recognition of the territories occupied by Moscow;
- continuation of the war, without Iranian support and with the increasingly pronounced deterioration of the Russian economy with the possibility of collapse;
A War Criminal Talks About International Law
"Please accept my sincere condolences for the assassination of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Seyyed Ali Khamenei, and his family members, committed with cynicism, violating all norms of human morality and international law," stated Vladimir Putin, President of Russia.
The desperation and disturbance of the Russian leader can be observed from the surprising appeal to international law, after he trampled on it for four years, invading an independent country, killing tens of thousands of civilians, women, elderly, and children, and being indicted for war crimes by the International Criminal Court.
The actions of Donald Trump and the new US military doctrine are debatable, as long as decisions lack well-argued and articulated legal, political, and moral justification, but the efficiency of the American administration in removing dictatorial regimes and eroding Russia's global power and influence cannot be overlooked.
Regardless of how the situation is viewed, it is certain that Iran will not have nuclear weapons, and tensions in the Middle East will be greatly reduced following Tehran's exit from the stage, at least for a period.