Donald Trump’s popularity is declining, Americans are dissatisfied with high prices, and the war with Iran is causing increasing criticism. All of this seems to give Democrats a chance for significant gains in the November 3rd Congressional elections. However, a landslide victory is far from guaranteed.
Six political analysts and electoral strategists consulted by Reuters warn that despite favorable conditions, Democrats face obstacles that could limit their gains. The party might gain more seats in Congress without achieving the sweeping victory anticipated by some observers.
Reuters has identified six factors that could make the difference in Tuesday's election.
1. Fewer and fewer seats in the House of Representatives are truly contested
The number of districts where Democrats and Republicans have close chances of winning has sharply declined over the past three decades.
Political polarization and the redrawing of electoral districts to favor one party—a practice known as gerrymandering—have made more and more seats almost certain for either Democrats or Republicans.
Thus, analysts estimate that only 40-50 of the 435 seats in the House of Representatives are truly up for grabs this year.
Most analysts cited by Reuters expect Democrats to regain control of the House, but with a relatively small margin of about 5-20 seats. This would be far from the 2018 result, when the party won by a margin of 41 seats.
Bill Galston, former advisor to President Bill Clinton at the White House, says that even if Democrats win 25 seats, they would have “a functional majority, but not a very large one.” Such a majority would allow them to control the House of Representatives but leave little room to maneuver for passing controversial laws. Also, it would be harder for them to present the result as a broad electoral mandate comparable to past major victories.
2. The Senate remains a much more difficult stake
Democrats hope to win seats in the Senate as well, but obtaining the four additional seats needed for a 51-49 majority remains uncertain.
One of the problems is that many of the states where the party is trying to win seats voted heavily for Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential elections. David Wasserman, an electoral analyst at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, explains that Democrats need to regain ground in states where Trump won by margins of over 10%.
Even a national shift in electoral preferences by ten points in favor of Democrats might not be enough. According to his estimate, the party would likely remain two seats short of a majority.
Additionally, Democrats face difficulties in states where they hoped to have easier races, such as Maine and Michigan. “Republicans are very close in these races,” said Andrew Busch, professor of public policy at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, and author of a paper on the history of midterm elections.
“It's not necessarily what you would expect to see if things were going well for Democrats on all fronts,” he explained.
3. Voter enthusiasm does not guarantee turnout
Polls show that Democratic voters are more enthusiastic about the election than Republican voters. But this advantage may not automatically translate into votes.
Electoral strategists point out that certain groups important to Democrats, such as young people, Black voters, and Hispanic voters, usually participate in smaller proportions in midterm elections than in presidential ones.
Moreover, polls indicate persistent distrust of both parties among these voters, especially regarding the cost of living.
If their turnout at the polls is below expectations, Democrats could achieve weaker results than suggested by the polls, analysts warn.
Data from the 2022 election show how much voter age can matter: people over 50 made up nearly twice the share of the electorate compared to those under 50. And in recent years, older voters have leaned more toward Republicans, according to exit polls.
4. Republicans have a financial advantage of hundreds of millions of dollars
Republicans have entered the final weeks of the campaign with considerably more financial resources than Democrats, although the money invested so far in important electoral races has had uneven results.
According to financial documents filed by party committees and data from the Federal Election Commission, the Republican advantage was several hundred million dollars when taking into account the funds of national committees and major allied political organizations.
Republicans also rely on MAGA Inc., a political funding organization close to Trump, which can raise and spend unlimited amounts to support candidates. The organization had $416 million available at the beginning of September.
On October 20, Trump stated that he intends to spend $400 million to support Republicans until election day, largely from MAGA Inc. funds.
By the end of September, Republicans had spent $188 million more than Democrats on electoral advertising in states decisive for Senate control, according to AdImpact, a company that monitors political ad spending.
“Whenever one side has a significant financial advantage and the ability to invest it in last-minute campaigns, it can tip the balance in tight races,” explained Andrew Busch.
5. Polls have previously underestimated support for Republicans
Another reason for caution is the polling errors in recent years, which have repeatedly underestimated support for Republicans. The most recent Reuters/Ipsos poll indicates a significant advantage for Democrats: 47% of registered voters say they would vote for Democratic Congressional candidates, compared to 35% who prefer Republicans.
But such a national polling advantage does not automatically guarantee a similar result in every district. The biggest estimation errors occurred in elections where Donald Trump was on the ballot. This year, Trump is not running but has urged his supporters to treat the November election as if they were voting for him again.
There are also different precedents. In 2014, polls significantly underestimated the strength of Republicans, who achieved a decisive victory in the Senate. In contrast, in the 2022 midterm elections, polls underestimated Democratic results.
6. Accusations of socialism could cost Democrats decisive votes
Trump and numerous Republican candidates are trying to portray Democrats as socialists and extremists, arguing that they represent a threat to the United States. This strategy worries some Democratic candidates involved in tight races, who fear such attacks could influence independent voters.
More and more of these candidates publicly insist that they support capitalism and the market economy, trying to reject the labels placed by their Republican opponents.
Republicans use the victories achieved in Democratic primaries by members of the Democratic Socialists of America and other progressive candidates to portray the entire Democratic Party as socialist.
However, fewer than 24 candidates from these categories have won primary elections this year.
Bill Galston believes the attacks could have an effect among undecided voters, especially where the differences between candidates are small. “It could be marginally effective,” he said.
According to the analyst, such messages could reduce the Democrats' advantage by one or two percentage points in tight races, enough to influence the outcome of some competitions.