Thursday evening, President Donald Trump called Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with news he did not want to hear: he was about to sign an agreement with Iran in a few days.
“It’s an excellent deal and it’s time to end this war,” Trump told Netanyahu, according to a senior American official quoted by Axios.
When Netanyahu entered the war alongside Trump, he did not imagine it would end like this. From the start, Netanyahu made it clear that he believed the war could bring about a regime change in Tehran.
Now, four months before elections, his rivals accuse him of turning Israel into a "vassal state," simply accepting the peace terms imposed by Trump.
Some officials in Washington believe that Netanyahu may try to sabotage the peace process even if the agreement comes into effect.
However, in the conversation with Trump, Netanyahu seemed to acknowledge that he could not stop the American president from signing the agreement, an American official told Axios.
For now, officials from both Tehran and Washington say an agreement is nearly finalized but not yet concluded.
What Triggered Recent Developments
As the exchanges of attacks with Iran intensified earlier this week, Netanyahu intended to launch massive strikes against energy and infrastructure installations, but Trump stopped him at the last moment.
Since then, Netanyahu has largely been outside the decision-making circle and has contacted allies in Washington to obtain information about Trump's negotiations, according to an American source familiar with the situation.
Trump's Thursday post, claiming that an agreement had been reached, caught Netanyahu off guard, according to an informed source.
When Trump called about an hour later, Netanyahu did not resist, according to the American official. The Israeli leader told Trump he trusted him to ensure that the final agreement addressed common concerns about the Iranian nuclear program.
“Bibi probably understood that an agreement was about to be concluded and that he could not stop it,” the American official said.
Behind the Scenes
Netanyahu and other Israeli officials are careful not to publicly criticize Trump, but privately they are very skeptical about the pending agreement.
One of the concerns is that, after signing the agreement and ending the war, Iran could delay negotiations without making real concessions in the nuclear field.
Meanwhile, according to this theory, the Iranian government could stabilize economically through oil sales without the risk of war.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated on Friday that Trump was pursuing an agreement “based on the assessment of American interests,” but Israel expected him to adhere to common principles regarding Iran's nuclear program, its missiles, and “proxy terrorist groups.”
Point of Tension
Katz also asserted that Israel maintains its “ability to act independently to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon” and will prepare accordingly.
Israeli officials are concerned that, since the ceasefire provided in the agreement also applies to Lebanon, the Trump administration could limit their freedom of action against Hezbollah and may require consultation before each strike.
“We understand Israeli skepticism. Hezbollah has killed many innocent Israelis, especially civilians. We do not expect any country to give up its right to self-defense. What we expect is that if we manage to involve everyone in the peace process, others will do the same,” said a senior American official in a press briefing on Friday.
The White House is “confident” that ultimately, the Israelis “will support the agreement,” the official emphasized.
New Concerns
Friday morning, after Iranian state media claimed the agreement would immediately provide billions of dollars to Iran, concerned Israeli officials sought clarification from the White House, an American official said.
American officials reassured the Israelis that the Iranian reports misrepresented the agreement's content.
“We believe that once they see the full terms of the agreement and understand that, essentially, Iran must first fulfill its obligations before we offer any benefits, they will be comfortable with this approach,” said the senior American official.
What to Watch For
Developments in Lebanon are one of the factors that could destabilize the agreement. Israeli forces still occupy significant portions of southern Lebanon and continue exchanges of fire across the border with Hezbollah.
The senior American official stated that if Hezbollah launches rockets at Israel and Iran continues to arm the group, this would violate the agreement.
For Netanyahu, signing an agreement that ends the war without achieving the publicly declared objectives would be a major strategic and political blow.