In 1897, mathematician Karl Pearson, one of the founders of statistics, published an article in the Royal Society journal in London, entitled „Mathematical Contributions to the Theory of Evolution – On a Form of Spurious Correlation Which May Arise When Indices Are Used in Measuring Organs”.
The article demonstrates that there is no causation between the correlation of two sets of numbers that, according to a given function, rise and fall together. In other words, the value of a number in the second set is not a specific one because of the value of a number in the first set, although there is a correlation between them, meaning a mathematical relationship.
It is possible that this explanation may sound complicated, therefore, I will use a football example.
Statement: Arsenal, the champion team of England, won all matches played at their own stadium in the 2025-2026 season, and in all matches won at their own stadium, there were over 65,000 spectators in the stands.
Correlation: In all home matches won by the football team Arsenal, there were over 65,000 spectators in the stands - True
Causation: Last season, for Arsenal to win the home match, there needed to be over 65,000 spectators in the stands - False.
In his work, Karl Pearson argues that a correlation is related to scientific observation, being mathematically demonstrable, whereas causation is related to the human mind, which requires an explanation, a story, sometimes unverifiable or untrue.
USL, the Biggest Disaster Since Ion Iliescu
The above description was used to show that when a figure of 40% appears in surveys next to AUR, representing voting intention, the correlation is that it will rank first, according to the data of one survey or another.
The causation conveyed by that survey is that AUR will govern and that there will be no political alternative to the extremist party.
As demonstrated by mathematician Karl Pearson, correlation can be true if the survey is conducted professionally, adhering to scientific criteria, but causation can be false.
And precisely this false causation is strongly promoted in society from the dark corridors of power, scaring people to maintain the privileges of an extensive political and economic group formed at the end of the complicated year 1989, with the collapse of communism.
The greatest disaster to hit Romania after the end of Ion Iliescu's era was the formation of USL, an unnatural left-right alliance that kept PSD and the entire apparatus of the former communist party alive, now connected to capitalist resources, as people began to lose confidence in the party-state.
The left-right alliance destroyed trust in parties - they are all the same - destroyed trust in Parliament, in institutions, and in public authority.
When the Citizen's Vote No Longer Means Anything
On February 5, 2011, when Victor Ponta, president of PSD, and Crin Antonescu, president of PNL, both supported by an alliance of moguls Dan Voiculescu, Dinu Patriciu, and Sorin Ovidiu Vântu, both with unresolved issues with the intelligence services, signed the establishment of the Social Liberal Union (USL), democracy received a strong blow from which it has not recovered to this day.
All underground efforts made by groups revolving around PSD from the judiciary, intelligence agencies, army, state-owned companies, Constitutional Court, and dozens of other institutions do nothing but try to save USL, the political vehicle that offers them protection from the law and people's anger.
It has reached the point where the vote of citizens no longer means anything, everything is decided behind closed doors, through opaque decisions that simply bewilder public opinion.
Until Dominic Fritz became a target, no one was concerned about such a legislative change and, even less, overnight. Today it is him. Tomorrow it could be someone else. That is why principles must be more important than the person to whom they apply.
It is wrong for political settling of scores to pose the risk of a new conviction of Romania at the ECHR. I am waiting for the reasoning and to find out if, however, a way can be found for the declarations of assets and interests of dignitaries to be made public.
Ilie Bolojan, Prime Minister of Romania
In a matter of weeks, the mayors of two of Romania's most important cities, Timișoara and Bucharest, which are not controlled by PSD, were neutralized through dubious investigations launched by the DNA, through court decisions, and also by some from the Constitutional Court.
It didn't matter that Dominic Fritz and Ciprian Ciucu won the elections at the polls. PSD, using all its resources embedded in the intestines of the Romanian state, reduced their political influence in their own parties and in society through compromising operations, extremely similar to those applied by Vladimir Putin to Russian dissidents.
Three Exams for Saving Democracy
At the same time, the public opinion, the pro-European side, which still believes in freedom and democracy, is subtly "worked on," instilling fear of AUR.
The message intended to be implanted in the collective mentality is something like: George Simion's party has 40% in surveys and only USL can stand up to it and keep Romania on a pro-Western path.
Unfortunately, the message is strongly promoted, even indirectly, by Nicușor Dan, through intermediaries.
In reality, democracy in Romania urgently needs a few honest exams to survive:
- To get rid of PSD, a dead party, without support and without a future, extremely toxic and corrupt;
- The electorate to return to the left-right polarization, regardless of how fragmented the political landscape is on either side of the political spectrum, to quickly get out of the USL swamp;
- To have a confrontation at the polls between conservatives and progressives, and those who obtain the majority to govern the country according to their political vision.
An Illegitimate Parliament. Why?
No one admits it, but the major problem with the current Parliament is not fragmentation, but lack of legitimacy. It was elected a week after the first round of the presidential election, subsequently annulled.
Therefore, if following the unanimous decision of the Constitutional Court that the entire campaign for the presidential elections was illegal, as a consequence, the election of Parliament, held a week later, was illegal. The same electoral campaign, the same rules.
You cannot govern without a parliamentary majority, built on political alliances between parties.
With whom can alliances be made now in the Romanian Parliament, with POT, with SOS, with all sorts of groups of political pirates, detached from the formations with which they entered the two chambers?
Even if AUR agrees with PSD to govern together, the two parties do not have all the votes, only 217. They have a deficit of 16 votes to reach the majority of 233. How will they succeed? With every unpopular measure, even a government of this kind will be in danger of being removed through a vote of no confidence.
Fragmentation is not to blame for the current political crisis - the illegitimacy of the Romanian Parliament is the main cause.
And this topic is carefully avoided while PSD massacres the Opposition, trying to survive, even though it has no chance.