Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan started by saying what people really needed to hear: apologies for the disastrous financial situation we have reached, order in expenses, good governance, respect for citizens, and reforms will start with political clientele and the state.
It’s good, after finding out how much we indulged in pizza and how little we paid for it.
The government program of the Cabinet contains provisions that support this objective, as well as provisions regarding the reduction of tax evasion.
But many of them are still quite vague.
- For example, reducing central office employees by 20%. How was the percentage calculated?
- Reducing excessive bonuses and incentives in central and local public administration. Which ones specifically, what does excessive mean?
- How will special pensions be reformed again?
- How will the accumulation of pension and salary be prohibited?
On the other hand, tax increases are much more specific.
Many special VAT rates are increased, CASS for pensions over 4,000 lei, increased dividend tax, increased excise duties, and the price of the vignette. It is very likely that we will not escape a general VAT rate increase this fall.
If the reform at the state level is visible from day one, if those general objectives become concrete quickly and are embraced by the entire government, and if tax increases will be more easily accepted. It will be essential, therefore, what the government will achieve from the first days, there is no respite, no honeymoon month.
What society wants to see is that the apologies and the promise of state reform were not just words. But the effort cannot be solely that of Ilie Bolojan, no matter how determined and authoritative the prime minister may be. It will be a collective effort or none at all.
Currently, we see four parties, each with its leader in the coalition and each with its deputy prime minister in the government, so we could understand a certain autonomy in governance. How uncomfortable will this be for Mr. Bolojan?
Some names in the government are hard to digest and opposition to the prime minister would have been desirable. There was no time; if he had done it, surely the swearing-in could not have been possible before the president's departure from the country, and a new postponement until Friday would have been costly.
But in the future, will Ilie Bolojan really be able to replace underperformers without political scandal? It will be a major test.
And so we come to the key question.
Who truly wants Ilie Bolojan to succeed?
PSD? Clearly the winner of absurdly long and poorly thought-out negotiations, PSD has secured almost everything it could at the power table. Including the rotating position, thus the prime minister, from April 2027, when the toughest measures will have been taken.
Sorin Grindeanu has already stated that PSD wants reforms, but not at any cost.
Why would PSD want the mandate of the politician, the president of the party it will face in 2028, to be a success?
Why would they be willing to harm their clientele, mayors, and core electorate, as long as all these will be an electoral gain for Ilie Bolojan? Yes, it's cynical and petty, but when has PSD's politics been any different?
PNL? For now, the liberals are willing to accept anything, including a division of ministries where only the Interior has a party member. But how many are truly willing to put in the real effort for reforms, how many genuinely want a president with principles and uncompromising, how many are lying in wait to take him down in case of failure and take the party back? Probably mainly those who are currently offering the most ardent praises.
Nicușor Dan? The only confrontation in these endless negotiations was with Ilie Bolojan on the VAT issue, a hike pushed to the fall when the political cost will be much more on the prime minister and much less on the president. With PSD, none. On the contrary, as mentioned, the social democrats hit the jackpot, including Justice, a central element in their promises.
Does Nicușor Dan want a rival in the trust rankings and, who knows, in the future presidential elections?
How significant will the real support be that Ilie Bolojan will receive to start the promised demolition, this is the key question? How many will want him to succeed and how many will be waiting for his failure? The side where the critical mass exists will determine Romania's recovery.