On the 1849th day of the war, we record new attacks and major trends, as well as relevant statements about the evolution of this conflict.
A Ukrainian drone attack targeted the Primorsk port in the Russian region of Leningrad, located near the border with Finland. An explosion occurred, followed by a fire at a fuel tank, but there were no casualties.
According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, nearly 250 Ukrainian drones were intercepted during the night in several regions, including Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, Leningrad, Moscow, and others, as well as over the Sea of Azov. Temporary flight restrictions were imposed at Pulkovo Airport in St. Petersburg.
Ukrainian drones are wreaking havoc on the front lines. Since the beginning of winter, they have killed or injured at least 8,776 Russian soldiers, more than Moscow has been able to replace. However, Russia continues to deploy new forces, so Kiev's strategy is to target enemy troops until their forces are depleted.
On the other hand, Washington has done the math and signals a paradox: Moscow would earn less from the lifting of American sanctions on Russian oil.
And Volodymyr Zelensky announces significant progress regarding prisoner exchanges with Moscow.
Major Impact Attacks
- Port near Finland hit by drones - A fire broke out at the Russian port of Primorsk following a drone attack on the Leningrad region, near the border with Finland, Russian authorities announced Monday morning. Over 50 drones were destroyed overnight above the Leningrad region, Governor Aleksandr Drozdenko said on Telegram. "A fuel tank was damaged at the Primorsk port, causing a fire," he announced, adding that personnel were evacuated. Primorsk port, one of Russia's main oil export centers supplying the "phantom fleet" of tankers, is located between the border with Finland and St. Petersburg, as noted by Kiev Post.
- Swarm of drones, airport blocked - The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that 249 Ukrainian drones were intercepted overnight in several regions, including Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, Leningrad, Moscow, and others, as well as above the Sea of Azov. Temporary restrictions were also imposed at Pulkovo Airport in St. Petersburg, where 10 flights were delayed and seven were canceled between midnight and 6 a.m.
Main Trends
- Drones kill more Russians than Moscow can replace on the front lines - Since the beginning of winter, Ukrainian drones have killed or injured at least 8,776 Russian soldiers, more than Moscow has been able to replace, said Ukraine's drone commander to The Economist. Robert "Madyar" Brovdi, who leads Ukraine's drone units, said this trend marks a potential turning point in the war, as Kiev increasingly focuses on targeting Russian personnel rather than equipment. December was the first month in which Russia's verified losses from Ukrainian drone attacks exceeded recruitment levels, according to Brovdi. At peak intensity, daily losses reached nearly 400 soldiers, roughly the size of an assault battalion. "If a battalion no longer has infantry, the Russians do not disband it, but send duty officers to the front. They are the easiest targets because they cannot fight," Brovdi explained. He said Ukrainian forces deliberately target enemy personnel in at least 30% of attacks, aiming to pressure Russia's ability to sustain its war effort, likening the strategy to depleting a resource over time. Despite recent progress, Brovdi warned that Russia continues to replenish its forces, and the long-term evolution of the war remains uncertain.
- EU restricts flow of confidential information to Hungary - The European Union is restricting the flow of confidential information to Hungary, and leaders are meeting in smaller groups, as Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned of long-standing suspicions that Viktor Orban's government may share information with Russia. Details HERE.
- Supermarkets in Finland prepared for war - In Finland, national defense is not solely the responsibility of the military. In crises such as war, cyberattacks, or natural disasters, supermarket chain S Group, for example, is prepared to contribute to the country's defense. Details HERE.
Key Statements
- How much would Russia earn from US sanctions relief - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that easing US sanctions on Russian oil could bring Moscow additional revenues of about $2 billion, which he described as insignificant. "Which option is better? Does Russia make more money if oil reaches $150 and they get 70% of it, i.e., $105, or if oil remains below $100, so they get less money? Our analysis shows that the maximum additional amount Russia could obtain would be $2 billion, which represents a day from the Russian Federation's budget," Bessent explained, in an interview with NBC News. Bessent believes that easing oil sanctions actually helps reduce Russia's revenues, as this move stabilizes global oil prices and thus limits Moscow's potential income. According to him, China remains the main buyer of Russian oil, accounting for over 90% of Russia's exports.
- Zelensky praises prisoner exchanges - Russian representatives were absent from the talks that began on Saturday and were initially supposed to take place in Abu Dhabi with Moscow's participation. The American delegation was led by special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, senior advisor and son-in-law of US President Donald Trump. In his evening speech, Zelensky stated that Washington's attention is currently divided. "It is clear that the American side's attention at this moment is primarily focused on the situation around Iran, but Russia's war against Ukraine also needs to end," he said, according to Kiev Post. Zelensky highlighted potential progress in humanitarian issues, including prisoner exchanges. "There are indications that other exchanges could take place, which would be really good news and a confirmation that diplomacy works," he said, without providing details. He did not clarify whether negotiations will continue or in what format.