Economist Ionuț Dumitru, honorary advisor to Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan, believes that the available economic data show that Romania could avoid a recession.
“As an economist, I avoid giving very definitive assessments because no one holds the absolute truth when it comes to forecasts. (…) Based on the data we currently have, with the figures we have seen in statistics so far, there are, I would say, premises for the economy to avoid recession,” Dumitru stated on Digi24.
Dumitru estimates that the economy will grow "between 0 and 1%" in 2025, a figure "quite realistic," with next year expected to see "a slight acceleration compared to this year." However, he emphasized that "probably both this year and next year will record economic growth lower than what we have been accustomed to in the last two decades."
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Painful but Necessary Fiscal Adjustments
Referring to the fiscal measures introduced on August 1st, the economist pointed out that these are inevitable for budget consolidation.
“There is no alternative to this, you cannot sell illusions that these unpopular measures can be avoided through a miraculous solution,” Dumitru said.
In his opinion, once the effects become visible and the deficit starts to decrease, "the confidence of financial markets, rating agencies, the European Commission, and investors (...) should be restored, and we should see a return of optimism."
Deficit in 2025: Over 8% after Revision
Regarding the budget deficit, Dumitru estimates that it will be "slightly over 8%" this year.
“It was clear that the initial target of 7% assumed for this year was not feasible from the beginning, and the measures taken, we must admit, were taken with a considerable delay,” the economist explained. He emphasized that by the end of the year, there is no room for additional measures, apart from stricter control over expenses.
The economist believes that the real stake remains in 2026, when the deficit should be lowered to around 6%. “With the implemented measures, I believe that if they produce the expected effects, we have a high chance of reaching this target of around 6% budget deficit next year,” concluded Ionuț Dumitru.
Bolojan Confirms: Budget Deficit in 2025 Cannot Drop Below 8%
Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan stated on Tuesday evening, on Antena 3, that the budget deficit for 2024 was over 9%, but did not reach the 10% threshold. For this year, he estimates that Romania will not be able to close the budget execution with a deficit below 8%, even after the government's adopted measures.
When asked if the deficit for 2024 was higher than initially announced, Bolojan explained: “Between the officially received data at the installation of this government and the observed data, we saw many expenses that, not being included in the budget, were future payment commitments. I think it was over nine last year, but we did not reach 10.”
The Prime Minister specified that although some spending caps were introduced in the latter part of 2024, they were fully implemented in 2025: “Even though some expenditure capping measures were taken at the end of last year, they were applied for all 12 months of this year. Thus, instead of reducing our expenses in the first semester, they increased by 10%.”
Regarding 2025, Ilie Bolojan also estimates that the deficit will be at least 8%: “We cannot close this year below eight percent with all the measures we have taken. These measures were taken in the second semester and have an impact on the last four months of 2025, and some will apply from the beginning of next year. On the other hand, we have some ongoing investment contracts that we cannot stop.”
The Prime Minister also emphasized that he does not want to resort to purely electoral gestures: “I do not agree to take image-type actions while in reality things are not corrected from a financial point of view.”