The first evidence suggests that the drone found near Ukrainian transport planes at an airport in Germany originates from Russia.
The armed drone found on Wednesday at Leipzig airport did not explode, but the fact that it penetrated the secured perimeter, near Ukrainian cargo planes, raises significant questions regarding international aviation security. Although the identity of the perpetrators remains unknown, initial evidence clearly points to a plot orchestrated by Russia.
It is the first time that a drone loaded with explosives has been discovered in Europe far away from the border with Ukraine, as stated in an analysis published in The Guardian.
What is known about the Leipzig incident
Photos published by German newspapers depict a quadcopter – a model that became familiar during the war in Ukraine – with a package attached. The device was just a few meters away from a Ukrainian Antonov cargo plane, easily recognizable by its yellow and blue colors.
The police in the German state of Saxony confirmed that the drone "was carrying an unidentified explosive device" and was found by an employee in the "secured area for air cargo operations," near the southern runway of the airport.
The German press reported that the attached bomb was made of PETN and plastic explosive semtex – the latter being the ammunition that exploded inside the Pan Am 103 plane over Lockerbie. However, the bomb attached to the drone did not explode because the detonator was defective.
A local newspaper, Leipziger Volkszeitung, wrote that the police found up to 800 grams of explosives, an amount "sufficient to cause considerable damage" to an aircraft, according to Trevor Lawrence, an explosives expert at Cranfield University, because airplanes "are ridiculously thin, often having only 3 mm of aluminum."
It is still not clear whether the explosive was specifically semtex. But any type of plastic explosive found in the drone is usually only available to well-established military personnel or terrorist groups, not to reckless amateur drone pilots playing with them, as mentioned by the British newspaper.
Furthermore, a second unidentified flying object, which could have been another drone, also collided with a DHL cargo plane following the first incident, a few hundred meters above the ground. The cargo plane suffered only minor damage.
Serious incident in the NATO "backyard"
Leipzig airport is a sensitive target, being the European base for Ukrainian Antonov aircraft used for heavy cargo transport. The airport is also used by NATO and the German army for transport operations, while also hosting a DHL logistics center.
The presence of Ukrainian aircraft suggests that it could have also served as a transit point for supplying Kiev.
NATO has only stated that it is aware of Wednesday's incident. However, it is striking that the Western Alliance failed to prevent drones from infiltrating the airspace of a strategic airport, notes the cited newspaper, recalling that it is not the first time Leipzig airport has been involved in a dangerous incident.
An incendiary device shipped through DHL exploded at the airport in July 2024, while a second package reached the UK and caught fire in a warehouse in Birmingham. Two similar packages were also discovered in Poland.
A subsequent pan-European investigation identified 22 suspects in Lithuania and Poland, suspected of working for Russian intelligence services. The investigation revealed that the perpetrators were recruited and instructed online, frequently paid in cryptocurrencies, while their knowledge of the overall plot seemed to be limited.
Russia, the main suspect
It is not without reason that Moscow is suspected in the Leipzig incident.
Russia has been behind a series of drone incursions into European airspace over the past year, some more overt than others. Last September, about 20 Russian Gerbera drones (winged delta-shaped and unarmed) entered Polish airspace, triggering a major alert and prompting authorities to advise residents in two eastern provinces of the country to take shelter indoors.
An analysis conducted last month by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) concluded that the Kremlin was behind a concerted drone surveillance campaign targeting the American airbase at RAF Lakenheath, as well as other strategic military targets in France, Belgium, and the Netherlands.
In the first case, NATO aircraft had difficulty shooting down the drones that had entered the airspace; most of them subsequently crashed or ran out of energy, gliding down to the ground. In the second case, Western military forces struggled to identify the perpetrators, failing to capture any of the drones or to react promptly to surveillance actions.
In short, Russia has so far managed to carry out, with relative impunity, operations with incendiary devices, as well as harassment and surveillance campaigns using drones. Moscow is already subject to a wide range of sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine and most likely believes that the West has few other punitive measures it is willing to apply to the country, as indicated by the British newspaper.
But now it is different.
"A drone carrying an explosive payload with a malfunctioning detonator represents a situation different from what we have seen before," said Charlie Edwards, an expert at IISS, adding a comment with alarming nuances: "It is likely – although not yet certain – that the device was designed to fulfill its mission, not to be discovered."
T.D.