Fuel prices will not return to previous levels, even if the state intervenes, warns the honorary advisor to the prime minister, Ionuț Dumitru.
According to him, the measures taken by the Government can only temper the price increases, not cancel out the effects of the international market, as reported by Digi24.
"If anyone imagines that we can stop or return to the previous prices, it is an illusion. We cannot do that. We can make the pump prices somewhat lower than justified by international market developments, but compensating fully for these developments is impossible," explained Ionuț Dumitru.
He emphasized that capping the markups had a visible effect, at least temporarily. "After capping the markups, there was at least a halt in price increases and even a decrease in certain gas station chains," he added.
Reducing excise tax: limited cost reduction and dependent on oil
The new measures announced by the Government could lead to a slight price decrease, but the effect largely depends on external developments.
"The measure to refund part of the excise tax, by 0.30 lei per liter, will come into effect, and we should see a new market effect after this measure. If prices continue to rise on the international markets, the effects of the Government's measures will likely be diminished, but at least we are offsetting some of the negative effects," explained the advisor.
At the same time, authorities have introduced other mechanisms to limit unjustified price hikes, such as taxing exceptional profits and capping commercial margins.
"These measures prevent a scenario where companies would take advantage of significantly higher oil prices and transfer an unjustified price to consumers," said Dumitru.
Limited fiscal space: the state cannot support price increases
The prime minister's advisor, Ilie Bolojan, points out that the state's intervention margin is limited due to the high budget deficit.
"We have large deficits and an extremely limited fiscal space. We cannot expect massive intervention with public resources because that would put even more pressure on the budget deficit," he stated.
Romania has a deficit of over 6% of GDP, and any additional increase could attract negative reactions from financial markets.
Moreover, the measures already adopted entail significant costs: around 600 million lei for transporters, about 1.5 billion lei for agriculture, and over 200 million lei monthly for excise tax reduction.
It all depends on oil: effects can be quickly nullified
Finally, Ionuț Dumitru emphasized that any pump price reductions can be quickly nullified if oil continues to rise in price.
"We should see a price reduction of around 30 to 40 bani, including VAT, but on the condition that the price of oil does not increase further. If there is a new oil price increase, the effect of the excise tax reduction will be consumed by that new increase," he concluded.
The Government approved a 30-bani per liter excise tax reduction on diesel fuel on Friday, a measure applied temporarily in the context of the oil market crisis.
This decision is part of a broader package, which also includes taxing exceptional profits in the oil sector to limit the impact of price hikes on consumers.