If we ignore the noise and superlatives, if we set aside the apocalyptic deadlines loaded with threats, we observe that the dynamics of President Donald Trump’s war in Iran suggest that it may end with a whimper, not a bang.
Trump has fallen into the trap of many presidents before him: the illusion of a quickly executed military operation that will bring lasting political changes. But war and peace are never so binary. As Trump gives his negotiators more time to make progress, the stage is set for the vague ash that usually puts an end to conflicts, as shown in an analysis by CNN.
Nobody wins it all
Trump's grand ambitions for Iran will likely remain out of reach. And not just his. In short, all involved actors will be left with unmet objectives:
- Trump: cannot guarantee that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon - only severely degrade its capabilities and delay its chances of doing so. And he cannot permanently alter an Iranian missile program that was quickly rebuilt after the 12-day Israeli war last year, notes the American post.
- Iran: will not receive the guarantee it desires, namely that all hostilities will end forever, and its desire for compensation seems distant outside of a possible lifting of sanctions.
- Israel: will not be able to disarm Hezbollah, the declared objective at the beginning of the conflict, but evasive for decades, as the group remains a stubborn and resilient political and military force in Lebanon. The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has never truly stopped and could continue - perhaps at a lower level, with occupied Lebanese territories as a support base - beyond Trump's war in Iran.
Trump's deadline for an agreement extends this weekend and closes in the next weekend, stock markets remain volatile, and reports of new eccentric American military options proliferate.
Trump's diplomatic approach is chaotic and relies on creating a reality that may - or may not - gain ground based on facts on the ground. But the current leadership vacuum in Tehran helps. Iran does not speak with one voice publicly, allowing Trump to try to speak on its behalf.
Trump Can Say What He Wants
The Iranian state media seems to have rejected an alleged American proposal in 15 points, about which the White House later added that it is not entirely accurate. Since we do not know publicly what the true red lines or requirements of the United States are or what Iran is willing to admit in private, Trump can pull ideas out of thin air and build a diplomatic triumph to his liking, the source mentioned.
If violence diminishes in some form, energy markets will calm down, and the Strait of Hormuz will open enough, Trump can claim a victory and will do so.
Trump preferred to talk about war in the past tense on Thursday. He prefers to call it an operation. He has long sought an exit, reinforcing his apparent invincibility and military power at the same time. However, his reality reflects that of Tehran: neither side can give in first, nor can they hide the damages that this month of violence has caused to the state and its allies.
Both sides need this to stop, and the crucial role that information plays helps both parties to define the reality in which they make an agreement, concludes CNN.
T.D.