Politico presents on Monday a new configuration for the „great puzzle of the European Commission,” with predictions made according to the latest information available.
In this scenario, Romania would receive the portfolio of commissioner for employment, social rights, and housing. Bucharest is thus rewarded for no longer proposing a man and taking into account Ursula von der Leyen’s desire to have more women nominated for the new executive.
Last week, Politico wrote that Roxana Mînzatu, the commissioner proposed by Bucharest, could be given the cohesion portfolio.
Now, the publication justifies its new prediction as follows: "The portfolio for labor, housing, and social rights will go to a socialist - a sign of center-left's inclusion of these issues as key points in their electoral manifesto. Considering the limited number of socialist candidates, Mînzatu could get the position, rewarding Romania for the switch from a male candidate to a female one (thus helping Ursula von der Leyen achieve her goal of having a gender-balanced Commission)."
Roxana Mînzatu's role as former Minister of European Funds has touched on several political areas. An alternative could be a more entrepreneurial or economic portfolio, adds the Brussels-based publication.
New Predictions in Brussels
Before Ursula von der Leyen allocates the key positions in her future European Commission, Brussels is full of speculation about who will get what role. Taking on an important portfolio gives European capitals power over key decisions: How will Brussels make Europe more competitive? How much will EU climate ambitions be scaled back to appease angry farmers? How quickly will the EU open its doors to more countries? - the publication states.
Based on dozens of discussions with officials from the European Commission, the European Parliament, and the European Council, as well as officials from various European capitals (plus some creative brainstorming in the newsroom), Politico made predictions on Monday about who will receive which portfolio.
"Of course, the complex puzzle is far from being completed and will remain in motion until the last minute," the publication notes.
The announcement of the composition of the European Commission is scheduled for Wednesday, although nothing is set in stone.
Ursula von der Leyen must consider geographic balance, political balance, and gender balance. Additionally, European leaders have exerted strong pressure on her to ensure that their commissioner proposal receives a good portfolio.
Ursula von der Leyen Keeps the Cards Close
Meanwhile, the various political factions supporting Ursula von der Leyen in the European Parliament have pressed her to ensure that their political families have enough influence in the upcoming Commission.
Therefore, Ursula von der Leyen has kept her cards close to her chest, leaving even the future commissioners in the dark about their future positions, according to the cited source.
The coveted competition portfolio, for example, is still up in the air at a critical moment. The competition department has an independent mandate to rule on major businesses, large fines, and big subsidies that often upset others. Competition officials are under immense pressure to yield to governments' requests to pour money into industrial giants and let them merge with rivals, the publication explains.
In this whole game, Ursula von der Leyen is the "master of dynamic ticket prices," as mentioned in the article.
Before the official inauguration of the new European Commission, the commissioners will still have a hurdle to overcome: their hearings in the European Parliament committees, where, based on previous experiences, at least one name is considered a "repeat" and will need to be replaced.