With ten days before the presidential final, the possibility of the extremist party AUR leader reaching the Cotroceni Palace has already caused a shock in Romania’s economy, with the national currency depreciating significantly.
At the end of June, it will be 20 years since the introduction of the heavy leu, and in the last two decades, never has 1 Euro been more expensive than 5 Lei.
On Tuesday, May 7, a day after the announcement that George Simion won the first round of elections and has the first chance to become the president of Romania, this psychological threshold was surpassed.
"... we have a deficit of almost 10% of GDP. This is where we start. You can only handle this deficit with credible policies. We didn't have that at the moment as evidence that the deficit has not decreased," said an official from a financial institution in Romania, who wished to remain anonymous, to spotmedia.ro.
In an interview with Adrian Codîrlașu, a financial expert, he spoke about trust, the survival of the Romanian economy, the continuation of financial flows from the European Union, but also the preservation of private investments in the domestic market, all depending on the belief that the President of Romania is a person attached to Western values, a guarantor of democracy and a free market economy.
Unfortunately, George Simion, the leader of AUR, due to his violent political actions, extremist statements, positioning against the European Union, NATO, and pro-Russian statements, is perceived as a factor of instability by investors and business people in the country and abroad.
Money can quickly leave Romania
"... A hard landing is possible, not to say soft, which is less credible. A hard landing is possible. Very hard begins if political uncertainty continues," stated Finance Minister Tanczos Barna at a press conference.
Among the business community, there is concern that there is a possibility that a large part of the capital, money held by both foreign and local companies, may quickly leave Romania if the AUR leader wins the elections.
"... if Simion wins, we will quickly see what Greece saw in 2015, but slower. Unlike Greece, our debt is not so high as to scare the West and grant forgiveness, as Athens received. Greece was forgiven a large part of the debt because it was not the country that was in danger, but the banks that had lent to it," explained the official consulted by spotmedia.ro.
But the possibility of billions of euros being rapidly transferred from Romania abroad due to the shift towards extremism will represent a shock followed by rapid and harsh measures to save the economy. Finance Minister Tanczos Barna referred to this shock when he spoke of a very hard landing.
Capital flight
But what does such a shock mean in concrete terms? JP Morgan, one of the largest investment banks in the world, announced in a financial report that George Simion's victory in the elections, "a leader known for his eurosceptic and nationalist positions," has increased the risk of a rapid devaluation of the leu.
The departure of capital generates unemployment. Because it's not just about financial capital. Even financial capital has effects when it leaves. I'm referring to real capital, to companies that produce goods in Romania and will no longer do so or those who wanted to do so and give up...
Official, financial institution, statement for Spotmedia.ro
If the pessimistic scenario advanced by JP Morgan materializes, and 1 Euro reaches 6 lei, then the entire price structure, salaries, and pensions will be affected.
All products and services will become more expensive, and incomes will depreciate, reducing purchasing power.
The depreciation of the national currency leads to an increase in interest rates on loans, reaching a point where the deficit can no longer be financed. The immediate effect: layoffs and job cuts in both the private and public sectors.
"If George Simion comes to power, the same thing will happen as is happening in America at the moment - capital flight. It doesn't have to be a massive exodus all at once. It's enough for a small financial hemorrhage to occur every day, and instead of money coming in, money leaves," the official declared to spotmedia.ro.
"We will no longer be able to borrow at all. And we need to borrow a lot to survive and reach a deficit of 7.5% of GDP, in the best-case scenario," he added.
Case study, according to the pessimistic scenario
Depreciation size:
1 euro = 5 lei → 1 euro = 6 lei
The appreciation of the euro means that imports become 20% more expensive, affecting overall inflation, especially in fuels, imported food, electronics, and medicines.
Estimated loss of purchasing power:
- Average monthly net income in Romania: 4,500 lei (2025, average estimate);
- Approximately 30–40% of the consumption basket is directly affected by the exchange rate (imports, prices in euros, energy, etc.)
If the prices of these products increase by 20%:
- 40% of expenses × 20% inflation = 8% loss of purchasing power;
- 8% of 4,500 lei = 360 lei/month loss;
- 4,320 lei/year/person, without tax or salary adjustments;
Conclusion:
If salaries or subsidies do not increase, the average Romanian will lose approximately 4,000–4,500 lei per year in purchasing power, just due to a depreciation from 5 to 6 lei/euro, in the absence of other adjustments.
The economic crisis of 2009 returns
If George Simion wins the presidential elections, the collapse of the economy will be swift, leaving the government with few options to cushion the shock, officials and experts consulted by spotmedia.ro for this article have stated.
Such an economic impact can be followed by a social one, strikes, protests, but also a political one, the impossibility of forming a parliamentary majority, possible early elections, or the suspension of the president.
The question is no longer how we got here, although in recent years the majority PSD-PNL has been constantly criticized for the lack of appetite for reforms, but how disaster can still be avoided.
George Simion as president is a sure path to an economic crisis of a scale similar to or even greater than that of the period 2009 - 2012.