George Simion has managed to take control of the narrative of this campaign’s beginning and set the agenda. Considering the very large score difference from the first round and the different objectives of the two candidates.
Nicusor Dan needs a significant mobilization; he still needs 3.5 million votes until a minimum of 5.5 that could secure the presidency. As it is already clear, he cannot rely solely on voters who had options on May 4; he needs to attract new electorate. For this, he must create emotion, have varied messages for areas that were previously inaccessible, both in terms of age groups and social categories.
However, with great care, as any radicalization generates further radicalization, and mobilization on one side attracts mobilization on the other side.
The support of the two parties in the governmental arc, PNL and UDMR, diminishes ND's anti-system predicate. Also, the fact that he is forced to consider a future coalition almost similar to the one massively voted against and associated with the system.
In contrast, Simion needs far fewer votes until the same limit, 1.5 million.
The PSD electorate, which totaled 2.2 million in December, would be sufficient, and it is foreseeable that they will predominantly favor him. It should not be ignored that the aura of the clear winner from the first round will likely bring him a bonus.
In these conditions, Simion's greatest concern is not to provide reasons for the mobilization of the electorate that may be opposed to him.
What could mobilize them to vote? Essentially fear, of exiting the EU, of isolation, of economic collapse, of chaos. In other words, Simion must ensure that he is not fighting alone, like Ponta in 2014.
If he had stayed in the ivory tower of his social media networks and propaganda television, Simion would have kept his electorate warm but would have remained a dangerous mystery to the rest. And mystery fuels fear.
Therefore, surprisingly, he has emerged from the first round's den, accepting interviews in uncomfortable areas, debates with trade unions, proposing debates.
The message is carefully calculated to target the potential fears of voters and the business environment. There are no bogeymen; I do not intend to do bad things. I will not take you out of the EU; I am just a vice president of a major European party, of Mrs. Meloni.
I do not want to ruin the budget; on the contrary, I am thinking about restructuring and I do not hesitate to talk about unpopular measures.
I do not understand the joy of those who thought that the statement regarding the reduction of the number of civil servants was "a dove" that would cost him. Isn't it what most Romanians want to hear, whether those who work hard in the private sector, in the country or in the diaspora, or the civil servants who bear the burden and see better-paid and incompetent clientele around them?
Of course, it is foolish to throw out a number off the cuff. Why 500,000 and not 600,000? Or 300,000? You cannot talk about restructuring in any field without correctly calculating where to cut and where to add. A number alone is just populism. But it comes on fertile ground for demonizing civil servants, a practice not abstained from primarily by those who are now in opposition to Simion.
It is difficult to attack the clientelistic bureaucratic system, about the weak and the fat man, about how many hirings were made. And then to pity the dismissed.
An entire day was spent discussing Simion's statement; he set the agenda and it spread to the foreign press, with Bloomberg comparing Simion's plan to that of the Argentine leader Milei and labeling it as MAGA. It is exactly what he wants; he has also taken Musk's chainsaw in hand, in an angry country.
The most fantastic promises, such as those regarding houses, have been relegated to a derisory register.
And the statements regarding Russia and Ukraine were quite definitive.
Regarding Georgescu, Simion has not been radical. He remains in an ambiguity that allows him room to maneuver.
Is there a risk of losing some of his radicals this way? Not substantially. Once loyalized, the electorate is unlikely to disappear; it no longer hears or sees anything, it is very close to fanaticism, at least as long as the propaganda machinery of the extremists keeps it warm.
The big question is how credible all these assurances are. Is Mr. Simion's signal that he will "melonize" credible, so to speak?
As for Mr. Simion, nothing is actually credible. Precisely because the man is capable of declaring diametrically opposed things in two places on the same day, depending on the audience he is addressing. Yes, it is possible for him to "melonize" because otherwise the country's bankruptcy is inevitable, just as it is possible for him to radicalize completely, to force snap elections and a parliament dominated by extremists.
For too long, Mr. Simion has cultivated a radical and thuggish image to be credible now when he is trying to project a rational and moderate leader.
But the fact that we do not believe him is enough for a massive mobilization? One thing is not convincing to secure the vote, another is to scare so much as to push the vote into the opponent's bag.
And so far, Simion has not fueled fears related to himself. And, most importantly, he sets the agenda in front of a Nicușor Dan stuck in a message for which Simion currently has a solution.
If someone imagines that slogans, labeling, generalizations, and tearful stories are sufficient against Simion's advance and strategy, they are heading for an epic failure.
Nicusor Dan needs to step out of his comfort zone and dry messages, to project a leader, ideas, strength. The idea that others can win the elections for him with stories on Facebook and TikTok is false.
I say it again, Nicușor Dan needs to resonate with the citizens' agenda and take control of the agenda.
Simion must be forced to respond, and the press must debate his solutions.
It no longer interests absolutely anyone in Vaslui, Slatina, or Constanța what the rating of Bucharest is. In my village, I don't know how many exactly understand what a rating is, even in the neighboring village.
You do not respond softly to Simion's populisms, technically with generalities. But with viable options that render them ridiculous. Anyone who does not understand this, I fear, understands nothing.