George Simion’s score and the difference from the next ranked candidate are so significant that discussing the second round is extremely challenging in balanced terms. Simion has almost double the score of Nicușor Dan and obtained nearly as much as the 2nd and 3rd places combined.
- Final results of the 2025 presidential elections: Simion wins by a large margin. Nicușor Dan, over 86,000 votes ahead of Crin Antonescu
- Bucharest sector won by Simion
- Which are the localities in Ilfov where Nicușor Dan won
- The county where Crin Antonescu won with 74.62%
The actual score far exceeded the exit polls and even the INSCOP survey from the voting day, which was the closest to reality. Essentially, George Simion won nationwide, except for the Hungarian counties and Bihor, which went to Crin Antonescu, and Bucharest and Cluj, taken by Nicușor Dan.
It surpasses by far the combined performance of Georgescu and Simion from November. It's overwhelming.
How can this be explained? There will be time for detailed analyses, probably leading to a brilliant doctoral thesis on this topic, but mainly it may be about the frustration of last year's elections being annulled and how the pro-European candidates built their campaign in a total reciprocal mess.
In fact, no one understood much of what happened last year, and the almost monochromatic map is the result.
It is more than the almost cumulative performance of Georgescu - Simion from November.
The question is whether the immense difference between the two finalists can still be reversed? Can Mr. Simion be defeated on May 18?
Simion needs another 11 percent to win, while Nicușor Dan needs an additional 30 percent.
From where?
Nicușor Dan will take the PNL electorate from Crin Antonescu, a part of the Hungarian electorate, and, let's say, Elena Lasconi's electorate, although there is a lot of animosity there.
The massive electorate at stake is the PSD, currently divided between Crin Antonescu and Victor Ponta. And it's not about the leadership of the PSD; it's clear that they no longer have control over the electorate. It's about the party's base. Where will it go?
Nicușor Dan has always had an anti-PSD discourse, highly emphasized in the recent campaign period. He fought fierce battles in Bucharest against the PSD candidate, Gabriela Firea. What could make PSD massively shift towards Nicușor Dan?
Is the PSD electorate closer to European values or to the sovereigntist Trumpist values of George Simion? The fury of the campaign, the mess of the pro-Europeans, the insults, and the burned bridges could backfire severely because the transfer of votes has an emotional component.
Could Ponta urge his million voters to vote for Nicușor Dan? With what argument? Or is his interest to approach Simion with a new party?
It is possible that new voters will turn out to vote, especially since the turnout on May 4 was not brilliant. Where will they go? Most likely, in the proportions we see now, some would come attracted by the allure of the clear winner, while others would come out of fear.
The largest difference ever surmounted in a presidential election was in 2014 when Klaus Iohannis recovered a 10% difference from Victor Ponta, but under completely different conditions. Victor Ponta was in power and made the fatal mistake with the polling stations in the diaspora. Something like that cannot happen to George Simion because he is not in a position to make such errors.
On the other hand, the one obliged to approach the current power because he wants the PSD votes is Nicușor Dan, which could harm him electorally.
All in all, a miracle in the most authentic sense of the word is needed for Simion to lose the final on May 18. And then? There will be much to talk about, but essentially, there are only two solutions: either a country bankruptcy with proper documents or what CTP called "melonization."