For May 18, there is only one voting option for anyone who wants to avoid the lightning-fast collapse of the economy. This will be the quickest effect of choosing George Simion and the predictable transition to governance by extremists.
If the situation weren’t so serious, I think a round with these guys at the helm would be downright educational for a definitive cure from phantoms and anti-European populism. But the situation is too serious to have room for such lessons, no matter how necessary.
But that doesn't mean we should delude ourselves. The electoral situation doesn't look bright, so it requires a lot of intelligence and skill.
What do the numbers say?
Nicușor Dan needs a minimum of 5.5 million votes to become the President of Romania. For example, with 5.2 million votes, Victor Ponta lost in 2014.
So far, Nicușor Dan has obtained 2 million votes in the first round. For comparison, Klaus Iohannis started in 2014 with 2.8 million votes, just one million below his opponent, and reached 6.2 million in the final, the largest increase made between rounds by a presidential candidate.
Therefore, Nicușor Dan still needs a minimum of 3.5 million votes.
Where can he get votes from?
The transfer from Crin Antonescu, Elena Lasconi, and Daniel Funeriu, totaling 2.2 million, cannot be complete, not only because it never happens that way, but also because there are no longer clear electorates and functional party machineries, except for UDMR, and among non-extremist candidates there has been too much hatred. It persists even now in the interactions among supporters.
It is expected that UDMR voters, the most disciplined, and the largest share of liberals, will lean towards Nicușor Dan, if the ND camp stops fiercely targeting PNL, Ilie Bolojan, and Cătălin Predoiu.
Most are traditional PSD voters, 2.2 million on December 1st. Many of them are already with George Simion or voted for Ponta (41% according to CURS data). The latter will either demobilize or go to the AUR candidate.
What will PSD supporters who voted for Crin Antonescu (38%) do? The party leadership did not give an endorsement, and even if they did, it wouldn't matter. Considering the traditional political battles, Nicușor Dan's statements about PSD, the mentality of this party, it is expected that these voters will mostly lean towards George Simion. The PSD base will bring George Simion closer to the minimum votes needed for victory.
So, all in all, what ND can get from Antonescu, Lasconi, and Funeriu represents at most one and a half million votes. The rest can only be new electorate. ND needs to bring at least 2.5 million voters who did not vote in the first round to the polls.
There are also new voters who may come to Simion, either some who didn't believe the elections wouldn't be annulled again, some very confident in his qualification for the final, or voters from parties who didn't want to align themselves with Simion from the start. There is a winner's bonus that we cannot ignore, especially when the score is very high.
For example, turnout was lower in rural areas than in urban ones. Simion can potentially attract more voters from there.
How can Nicușor Dan attract new voters?
Traditionally, such a push to vote for the disinterested on May 4th would be a very powerful emotional trigger. In 2014, it was the issue of voting in the diaspora, which spread like a devastating wave in Romania.
However, back then, the trigger was in Victor Ponta's hands, as the prime minister. It is harder, not impossible of course, for George Simion from the opposition with highly calculated messages to achieve the same suicidal performance, so it's not something to bet on.
The Tuesday interviews showed Mr. Simion's remarkable ability to navigate between the expectations of his electorate, without stirring the fears of others. Their goal was clear: "I'm not a bogeyman!".
- George Simion, contradictory statements about Georgescu, the prime minister. Instead, threatens with snap elections (Video)
- Simion wants to fire 500 thousand civil servants. Unions are vehement. Nicușor Dan has calculated and says it's nonsense
Like Mr. Iohannis in 2014 and unlike Traian Băsescu, Nicușor Dan is not the type who can generate such emotion himself. It's not a flaw, not a quality, it's about typology.
Those who keep comparing him to Traian Băsescu can coldly observe that George Simion is much closer to the electoral typology of the former president than Nicușor Dan.
I don't believe that the "Russians are coming" still has the potential to strongly move the emotional needle. It did so excessively in November and was largely a theme compromised by the annulment of the elections, a trauma whose dimensions I think were underestimated.
The East-West choice can only be a framework that needs to be filled with concrete elements. 80% of Romanians declare themselves pro-European and pro-NATO; what's important is what each understands from that.
The economic situation is deteriorating urgently, with the visible decrease in the leu impacting all bills. The ROBOR rate as well. It has the potential to move the needle.
But simply invoking the impending economic catastrophe is not enough against a candidate who is in opposition and has only been pointing out the economic misfortune caused by the governance from which two components, PNL and USR, now support Nicușor Dan.
In Plain Language
The economic crisis can be a key, even emotional, theme depending on how Mr. Dan addresses it.
He must quickly adapt his message and precisely target it towards the immediate concerns of the citizens, in their language, especially the citizens in rural and small urban areas. The big city voters have already largely supported him, he cannot expect to gain millions more from them.
Nicușor Dan needs to leave Bucharest, his figures, and obligations behind, and address the areas where he was largely absent in the first-round campaign, resonate with their concerns, and become accessible to them.
He also needs to have a clear profile as a leader, one who is assertive and strong, the one who steers you out of the storm. It's great for society to debate on social media, but that's only a background. People vote for someone they can relate to.
We are in a governmental crisis, the future president's first move will be to identify a majority and appoint a prime minister. The prime minister will be the main executive lever for the president. The economic evolution overwhelmingly depends on him.
You need to explain to people concretely what you intend to do. Hesitation, evading answers communicates either uncertainty or secret agendas, exactly what extremists will fervently speculate on, filling in the gaps with the most advantageous electoral scenarios for George Simion.
It's great that Mr. Dan refuses to negotiate votes with parties and has chosen to address citizens directly. That's what he needed to do. But it depends on how he addresses them, what he outlines, how he resonates with people, what kind of leader image he projects.
It would be good to vote rationally. But we often vote emotionally, mostly viscerally. It would be good to be lucid, but periodically we hang the icon of a father figure on the wall only to angrily smash it after 5 or 10 years to replace it with another. That's who we are, and no electoral strategy can ignore that.