A return to the European Union could become one of the major themes of the upcoming electoral campaign in the United Kingdom, after a YouGov poll suggests that the Labour Party could gain a much larger number of seats if it promises to try to bring the country back into the bloc.
Meanwhile, former Prime Minister Tony Blair is urging the current government chief, Andy Burnham, to include rejoining the EU in his strategy for the next decade, as reported by The Guardian.
Tony Blair calls for the reopening of the Brexit dossier
Blair argues that the United Kingdom should work over the next ten years to rejoin the European Union.
In a document from the Tony Blair Institute (TBI) titled "A Path to Rejoining a Reformed Europe," the institute suggests that London should even accept free movement of people and a financial contribution to the EU budget as part of potential conditions for rejoining.
The former Prime Minister urges Burnham to use the ten-year plan he is set to present in November to bring back the issue of EU membership to the political agenda.
"Britain should signal an intention, if the terms are right, to enter into a formal structured relationship with Europe and to initiate a negotiation process where everything is on the table, but nothing is agreed until everything is agreed," Blair argues.
The Tony Blair Institute goes even further, stating: "Over the next decade, Britain should work towards the goal of rejoining a reformed European Union."
Burnham currently avoids a commitment
Pressure on Andy Burnham comes after the British Prime Minister refused to rule out the possibility of rejoining the EU being included in the future electoral program of the Labour Party.
However, Burnham stated that, at present, his priority is to improve relations between the UK and the EU, and the issue of rejoining the bloc is "for another day."
In the past, Burnham has expressed support for a potential return. Last year, he stated his hope to see the UK rejoining the European Union during his lifetime.
Other key members of the Labour Party also support this idea. British Defense Minister Wes Streeting described Brexit as a "catastrophic mistake" and said the party should aim for rejoining the EU. In contrast, Culture Minister Lisa Nandy warned against reopening the disputes generated by the 2016 referendum.
The survey that changes the electoral calculus
A YouGov survey conducted in June for the pro-European organization Best for Britain, with a sample of over 13,000 people, suggests that the promise to attempt rejoining the EU could strengthen support for Labour among progressive voters and, according to the survey's modeling, would not increase support for Reform UK.
The modeling indicates a projected increase in Labour's number of seats from 136 to 321 if the party were to run on the promise of trying to rejoin the EU.
However, The Guardian notes that these figures are from a survey conducted before Burnham became prime minister, and the electoral situation has since changed.
Surveys on the British attitude towards the EU also show a shift from the referendum period. A YouGov study published in June revealed that 55% of Britons currently support rejoining the EU, but support drops to 35% if rejoining would entail giving up the UK's old exceptions, including those regarding the euro and the Schengen Area.
Blair's plan, however, involves a reformed EU
Blair's institute does not simply propose a return to the pre-Brexit situation. The document advocates using the potential rejoining of the UK as a negotiating tool for reforming the European market and EU rules in areas such as energy and technology.
The TBI calls on Burnham to abandon the current "red lines" regarding rejoining the EU, free movement, the single market, and the customs union, and replace them with a single principle: the UK should only accept rules and initiatives that demonstrate economic or strategic benefits for the country.
B.B.