Just five days before the second round of the presidential elections on May 18, the battle between George Simion and Nicușor Dan is completely balanced.
Both candidates are rated at the same percentage – 48.2% of the voting intentions, while only 1% of respondents would annul their vote, and another 2.6% are undecided, according to a survey conducted by AtlasIntel for HotNews.
AtlasIntel has become a closely watched polling house after correctly anticipating the outcome of the local elections in Bucharest in 2024, when Nicușor Dan was reelected as mayor.
However, in the survey before the first round of the presidential elections, AtlasIntel credited George Simion with only 30.2%, 11 points below the actual score - almost 41%.
The AtlasIntel survey was conducted between May 9-12, 2025, on a sample of 3,995 respondents. The method used was random digital recruitment, and the margin of error is ±2 percentage points, with a confidence level of 95%.
How the votes of eliminated candidates are redistributed
A key component of the second round is the direction in which the votes of candidates who did not make it to the final round are heading. Nicușor Dan massively benefits from the electorate of Crin Antonescu: 91.7% of his voters say they will support the independent candidate, while only 6.2% would vote for Simion.
And supporters of Elena Lasconi overwhelmingly lean towards Nicușor Dan - 96.7% of them, compared to only 2.5% for Simion.
The electorate of Victor Ponta is less evenly divided: 69.3% would go to Dan, and 22.6% to Simion, even though both have focused on nationalist themes in the campaign.
A special case is Daniel Funeriu, whose electorate, although small (only 0.34% in the first round), is almost evenly split: 52.7% for Simion and 47.3% for Dan.
Polls vs. reality: who was the closest?
After the first round, AtlasIntel analyzed the accuracy of polls published before the vote. The closest to the result obtained by George Simion (41%) was the Verifield survey at the end of March, which credited him with 35% - a difference of only 6 points.
On the other hand, CURS recorded the largest deviation: it rated Simion at 26%, 15 points below the actual result. AtlasIntel, in its survey published three days before the vote, gave Simion 31%, missing his actual score by 10 points.
It all depends on mobilization
Sociologists confirm that Nicușor Dan has closed the gap with George Simion. The decisive factor in the second round will be voter turnout, not the diaspora.
Remus Ștefureac (INSCOP) emphasizes that "these elections will once again be played at a small difference," and estimates show a significant increase in the intention to participate - from 50% in the first round to over 63% now.
Mobilization is stronger among voters within the country, which could bring up to 1.5 million new voters.
Marius Pieleanu (Avangarde) confirms the trend and estimates that Nicușor Dan needs "300,000 to 400,000 more votes in Romania" to match Simion's score: "If 1.5 million more people vote and a million vote for Dan, the diaspora can no longer decide alone."
G.P.