It is highly unlikely for the Constitutional Court to change the BEC decision regarding Călin Georgescu’s candidacy, especially since the Amicus Curiae memorandum formulated by Prof. Remus Pricopie allows for an extension of the analysis beyond the conclusions of the contested decision.
- Călin Georgescu’s candidacy was rejected by the BEC. The reasoning is based on the CCR decision to annul the 2024 elections (Document)
- Călin Georgescu contested the rejection of his candidacy at the CCR. What he complains about
- Why BEC eliminated Georgescu and what comes next. What is to be understood
So the big question is where will the very large electoral base, approximately 40%, of Mr. Georgescu be urged and where could it go.
For now, a trial balloon has been launched, but a final choice of successor is delayed, even though the time remaining until March 15, the last day for submitting candidacies, is increasingly scarce, almost at the limit of impossibility to gather 200,000 signatures, especially since the technical apparatus for this belongs to a medium-sized party and one that is absolutely schematic. As evidence, Mr. Georgescu has only gathered around 300,000 signatures given his immense popularity.
Therefore, from the start, we can appreciate that any candidacy of extremists submitted in place of Călin Georgescu, the validity of the signatures will be questionable. There is information that blank signatures have been collected to be used for any candidate that may be launched.
In these days, Călin Georgescu can only have one concern, how to sell his dowry in exchange for the most solid guarantees that he will not be abandoned, possibly in prison. At the same time, one does not need to be a political genius to know that votes and adhesions are not sacks of potatoes to be thrown from one trailer to another.
It is inevitable that a part of Mr. Georgescu's electoral dowry, largely on a personal level, linked to his messianism, will be lost completely, meaning there will be people who simply will not vote on May 4 and 18, deeply disappointed and politically orphaned.
On the other hand, for the transfer to be as substantial as possible, it is necessary for Mr. Georgescu to be as involved in the elections as possible, closely connected to the successor candidate.
This would imply a tandem in which his leadership would be the offer for prime minister and would drive the campaign of the future candidate, who would be voted for Mr. Georgescu to become prime minister, an offer for which there is, however, no guarantee, as it depends on the creation of a parliamentary majority that would want this option.
Since a majority without the PSD is not possible in the current configuration, it raises the question of why this party would abandon the majority in which it has the prime minister for one in which it would be mounted by the bizarre character with clearly dictatorial tendencies.
Who should Mr. Georgescu form a tandem with?
The most politically logical would be a tandem with George Simion, especially since he leads and represents the party that should offer Mr. Georgescu the support base for the government leadership.
But Mr. Simion has just made a misstep with that statement about skinning those who are related to the rejection of Mr. Georgescu's candidacy, even if it was toned down the next day. It is the kind of incitement to violence that is perfect for the CCR to conclude that it does not fit the presidential profile. For now, he has ended up with a criminal case.
- George Simion apologizes for not attending the protest and incites violence: BEC judges "should be skinned in public square" (Video)
- Simion awaits Călin Georgescu's advice and says that the "skinning" of BEC judges was a metaphor
But the most significant counterargument is the one related to political logic. A newly elected leader never takes care to feed his rivals but rather to bury them as deeply as possible under the foundation of his new power.
Most likely, Mr. Simion's first concern will be to get rid of Călin Georgescu, not practically hand over both the party and the power of prime minister, greater than that of the president in reality, once he is invested by Parliament.
The option of Dan Dungaciu has been put on the market, an extremely controversial character, pro-Russian, anti-Semitic, with neo-legionary sympathies, and indicted by the DNA for abuse of office based on a notification from the Court of Accounts for the period when he was the director of the Institute of Political Science and International Relations "Ion I.C Brătianu" of the Romanian Academy.
It is difficult to attack the thieving political class by supporting a candidate accused of causing public money damage while in a public position and being tried for it.
However, for Mr. Georgescu, Dan Dungaciu, including through their extremely similar connections but also due to his lack of political stature, would be a much better option than George Simion.
But why would AUR support Dan Dungaciu? Yes, he worked for the party in the Republic of Moldova, but there are names there that surely consider themselves more entitled to a candidacy. Mr. Târziu announced that he would not refuse if asked.
And for the AUR electorate, Mr. Dungaciu is a quasi-unknown. Would the party work to make Mr. Dungaciu president, and Călin Georgescu prime minister? What would be in it for them? What party would do that?
There is also the option of Cristela Georgescu, the safest from a distance for Călin Georgescu, but difficult to impose on the electorate, especially after Mr. Georgescu himself said that women are not made for high positions. I really don't see AUR working tirelessly to bring the Georgescu family to power, only to be turned away in the end.
AUR MEP Claudiu Târziu, the second in command and main rival within the party of George Simion, ruled out the option of Cristela Georgescu, skillfully shrugged at Dan Dungaciu, and pressed for the solution of George Simion, on whom he put the responsibility for the outcome.
So how could Georgescu's votes be divided?
Some of Mr. Georgescu's votes are from Social Democrats still seduced after the first round. For them, after Mr. Georgescu's disappearance, regardless of the successor, the most natural option would be Victor Ponta, more of their own and incomparably more capable of speaking their language than Dan Dungaciu, a character who does not have either the aura of Mr. Georgescu, built over time, or the art of seducing the electorate.
If, to the approximately 10 percent he has now, largely from Social Democrats who do not want Crin Antonescu, we add another 15 percent from Georgescu, Victor Ponta could reach the second round.
The designated successor of Călin Georgescu will take the remaining 25 percent or at least around 20%? If this transfer succeeds, the worst-case scenario cannot be excluded: two isolationists in the second round.