The peace agreement announced by the US is actually a victory for Iran.
President Trump has announced that the United States and Iran have reached an agreement to end the war. „Congratulations to all!” Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social. Then, he went to watch the loud show he had arranged for his birthday on the White House’s South Lawn.
However, the United States doesn't have much to celebrate: in record time, Trump and his team lost a war to a mediocre, yet extremely dangerous military opponent, writes Tom Nichols, in an analysis published in The Atlantic.
The details of the agreement remain unconfirmed, but the American president was eager to announce the understanding on his own birthday.
Even before having the details, it is clear that Trump has failed to achieve each of the objectives he set for this chosen war, and now he is determined to sign, seal, and deliver America's capitulation as quickly as possible.
And if defeat seems like a strong word for America, Nichols suggests we think about what we know about the end of this war. Iran has suffered significant damage due to American and Israeli military actions. It has been demonstrated, however, once again, that killing people and bombing targets do not bring victory.
The reality shows the following:
- The war will end with the regime in Tehran intact and under the control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps;
- The Strait of Hormuz will remain under the threat of Iranian attacks;
- Iran will continue to possess significant stocks of drones and missiles;
- The regime will maintain its capacity to be a state sponsor of terrorism;
- Many sanctions will be lifted, and billions of dollars in unfrozen assets will flow to Iran.
In other words, the Iranians have achieved their key strategic objectives - the survival of the regime above all - while the Americans have not achieved any of their goals.
Iran, though temporarily weakened, is now a stronger political actor: the regime in Tehran has resisted a massive US attack, survived, and then inflicted suffering on various Gulf states as punishment for agreeing with Trump's war.
Netanyahu is humiliated
Israelis, on the other hand, have been left out. It's hard to feel sorry for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who imprudently encouraged Trump to attack Iran, but now he too feels humiliated.
The Iranians cleverly linked Netanyahu's war against Hezbollah in Lebanon to Trump's war in the Gulf, and Trump is furious with Netanyahu for complicating the US exit from the conflict. When Netanyahu planned major attacks in Beirut in early June, Trump called him, cursed at him, and said, "You'd be in jail if it wasn't for me."
It seems that the future agreement imposes the cessation of hostilities in the region, including in Lebanon, and Trump negotiates as if he could fulfill this request, leaving Jerusalem out of the agreement.
Israelis have stated that Hezbollah has launched attacks on Israel. Instead of asking the Iranians to rein in their proxy organizations, Trump turned to the Israelis on social media, telling them to calm down, mentioning that the attack "was very small and senseless, no one was injured, hurt, or killed, and it should not disrupt this important process."
Do you know the joke about the taxi driver?
The Trump administration will argue that it has achieved a victory because it has left Iran without nuclear weapons. But this claim, simultaneously absurd and redundant, underscores Nichols' point.
Tehran had already committed ten years ago, through the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) negotiated by the Obama administration, not to develop nuclear weapons. No one should trust the Iranians, but before Trump unilaterally revoked the agreement in his first term, the JCPOA seemed to be working.
Moreover, at the time Trump chose to go to war, Iran was by no means weeks away from obtaining a nuclear bomb, as Trump claimed.
The effort to claim that this war has thwarted Iran's nuclear ambitions is just an attempt to distract from the US administration's failure to achieve a regime change, which has always been its primary objective.
Trump's self-congratulations for avoiding the Iranian bomb are like the joke about the London taxi driver who used to throw "lion powder" out the window to keep the lions at bay. When told there are no lions in London, the taxi driver replied, "And that's a damn good thing because the powder doesn't work," the author writes to illustrate the absurdity of the current situation in the White House.
Trump's "great achievement"
If signed on Friday, the agreement will open a two-month period of additional negotiations, and Trump could argue that he will achieve more in this process. But how will he do that?
Trump has been talking for several weeks about removing the "nuclear dust" from Iran - his strange term for the uranium now buried under the rubble from American bombings - and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has claimed that the United States has several plans to remove this material.
However, the Iranians are eagerly planting traps around the uranium to ensure it stays where it is, and despite Hegseth's bluster, America will not enter Iran to remove it without Tehran's consent.
On the contrary, the Iranians now have every reason to rush to get a bomb and can do so with much less transparency than they were required to endure under the previous agreement negotiated by Obama.
Finally, Trump's "great achievement" - the Strait of Hormuz will "open," but it was already open, at least for those whom the Iranians allowed to pass. In his triumphant message, Trump said, "By this present, I fully authorize the free opening of the Strait of Hormuz." It's great, but only Iran can make that decision.
Trump also stated that the US Navy's blockade of Iranian ports has ended, which is indeed within his power, but that only means America is withdrawing, while Iran remains where it is.
Iran is stronger, America weaker
Meanwhile, according to the conditions that have been disclosed to the press so far, largely from the Iranian side, Tehran claims not only to receive approximately $12 billion in advance for reconstruction but will also receive another $12 billion within 60 days.
Later, the Iranians stated they would receive a $300 billion fund for reconstruction. American officials have insisted to reporters that any release of funds will be based on results, an uncertain condition that raises more questions and could invite the Iranians to engage and negotiate if the Americans oppose the delivery of the money.
In conclusion, the war leaves Iran affected but stronger and with more money at its disposal, while America is weaker, with significant stocks of depleted weapons and ordinary people paying the price of the war at the pump.
Trump also stated today that he is willing to resume hostilities if the Iranians do not cooperate. Tehran, however, sneers contemptuously at the idea that Trump will block American forces and then start a second conflict just weeks before the midterm elections, especially since the American people - and perhaps more importantly from Trump's perspective, the international markets - have worsened due to the conflict.
Donald Trump started this war by promising the Iranians that he would be able to wrest them from the hands of the theocratic tyrants who oppress them and repeatedly said he would settle for nothing less than "unconditional surrender." If he had overturned the regime in Tehran, he would have had the thanks of most of the world and congratulations even from his most dedicated critics.
Instead, while the United States was defeated, Trump waited on the lawn for the rain to stop to begin his party, the author concludes.
T.D.