The INSCOP opinion poll placing AUR at an impressive 38% is a wake-up call from the post-electoral euphoria of half the country. Fear has melted away, anger remains, and has the potential to grow.
All pro-European parties of the current coalition with chances to pass the electoral threshold are together only 10 percentage points ahead of AUR. Only 6% of the voters of this party trust the new President of Romania. The presidential elections did not conclude a journey, did not set society on a new path. They dug a canyon.
One part continues their life, has taken care of itself. The other part is even more vehement and feels unrepresented. Part of it is convinced that the vote was rigged with buses from the Republic of Moldova. The aggressive and mocking discourse of many supporters of the current president accentuates the animosity.
The lavish public spending at Cotroceni with which the President began his term when the discussion is about drastic budget cuts (I was invited, I declined for personal reasons and because I do not really appreciate this kind of meetings) seemed downright defiant from the other side of the canyon.
I see voices attributing the rise of AUR to the collapse of the other extremist parties.
Yes, but concentrating in one force gives it more power. Surely, George Simion personally has a precarious position, but that only means it's a matter of time until another leader emerges. And it's not difficult, as long as the demand is not vision, elaborate plan, realism. But only revenge and harshness.
Very difficult times are coming when many social categories, perhaps all, will be affected to a greater or lesser extent. It's not hard to anticipate who will benefit electorally.
The traditional parties are in deep crisis. First and foremost PSD, which has suffered a significant contraction from December 1 until now. Where is the PSD electorate? Mostly at AUR. Not necessarily ideologically. But out of disappointment.
PSD has distanced its electorate especially through the projection of a party that is bloated, deceitful, and corrupt. Mayors no longer have electoral traction beyond local elections and, on the contrary, they could be dragged down by the association with PSD.
And the worst for PSD is that it has no perspective. The choice is between leaders associated with disaster and PSD members without notoriety, second-line, third-line, maybe consistent, but far from the necessary scope.
PNL has the advantage of a high-caliber leader, second in trust rankings, closely following President Dan. But Ilie Bolojan will most likely become a crisis prime minister, associated with extremely unpopular measures, it's hard to believe this could bring electoral growth.
And USR is in a chronic crisis, speaking in many voices, heading towards internal elections, and only after that will it be seen what will remain of it. It is noteworthy that the current interim leader has a very modest score in opinion polls, being surpassed even by Victor Ponta.
Governing is unlikely to be peaceful as long as the coalition parties are so different, with a past full of wars. The 2028 electoral campaign has already begun, and PSD is expected to play both in government and in opposition if it does not have the prime minister.
A presidential party is likely to emerge. It is neither a panacea nor a guarantee. Because it will also depend on the government's performance, morally endorsed by President Nicușor Dan, himself with a trust rate below 50% at the moment when he should represent the peak of his popularity.
Therefore, I repeat, Nicușor Dan's main concern should be accessing the electorate that does not feel represented by him or at the governmental level. Otherwise, the nationalist movement has the potential to win the majority in future elections.
This is a task he has not yet begun. For example, the comparison used on Wednesday with paying for a medium pizza and eating a large one, although correct for presenting the deficit situation, is irritating for those who did not participate in the feast but will pay the real price. Because some have hardly tasted anything.
And it's not just about nationalists.