In multiple statements, Vladimir Putin has announced that Russia is waging a war against Europe, against the „collective West,” as he called it, not only against Ukraine, and the threats of the Russian leader are materializing day by day through military actions.
The launch of 19 drones into Polish airspace represented the most aggressive attack on a NATO member state, with the Kremlin’s message being quite clear: if support for Ukraine continues, the expansion of the conflict represents a direction of Russia’s military action.
Although Moscow representatives denied the intention to attack a NATO state, stating that the drones were targeting western Ukraine, it is now clear that a decision was made at the military leadership level to enter Polish airspace to target strategic locations.
From all available data, Vladimir Putin has provoked NATO to test the alliance's reaction and unity, attempting to destroy the weapon logistics center near Rzeszow airport.
The attack also suggests a certain level of confidence at the Kremlin that NATO's response will be political rather than military.
Putin believed he would come out ahead in this operation anyway, sending a new message that he is in control, strong, and has the initiative in both military and political actions.
A Success That Does Not Eliminate the Threats
"Russia has endangered the lives of people in a NATO and EU member state. This cynical action is part of a long series of provocations in the Baltic Sea region and on the eastern flank of NATO," accused Friedrich Merz, the Chancellor of Germany, shortly after Russia's attack.
"It is good that Poland, together with its NATO allies, managed to identify the threat in time and eliminate it. At Poland's request, the North Atlantic Council discussed Russia's actions today under Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty. NATO is and will remain prepared to defend itself," added the German leader.
Official positions suggest that the alliance's military response was a success, with targets being destroyed, so Russia's objectives were not achieved.
Access to information regarding what happened on Tuesday night is limited, and an investigation is underway, but from the statements of political leaders, it is understood that the Kremlin's forces were aiming to surprise the alliance's defense system, with the drones targeting the most important arsenal depot in Poland, questioning NATO's response capability.
If we may not soon know the conclusions Putin drew from launching the 19 drones at a NATO state, we know precisely the impact the event had on European countries neighboring the conflict, as well as the concerns arising in Western chancelleries, including Washington.
The Supreme Allied Commander will continue to actively manage our deterrence and defense posture along the entire eastern flank. Allies are determined to defend every inch of NATO territory. We will closely monitor the situation along the eastern flank, with our air defense constantly ready.
Mark Rutte, NATO Secretary General, reaction after Russia's raid on Poland
So far, many officials, military personnel, and defense professionals may or may not have believed that the threat from Russia was directed at the entire global security system, but now everyone involved considers Moscow a danger, and the reactions are accordingly.
What Will Romania Do?
"Romania must have allies and behave as its allies do. It is absurd to expect, even though you do nothing, any fact of life, you do nothing and benefit from security and prosperity..." stated Nicușor Dan, the President of Romania, in an interview on TVR, also announcing that our country's military forces will react if a situation similar to that in Poland arises.
Another significance of launching drones into Polish airspace may be determined by a time crisis manifesting at the Kremlin level.
Following the Ukrainian army's operations, Russia has lost a quarter of its oil refining capacity in the last 100 days. Fuel shortages are being recorded in several regions.
Romania has been under Russia's hybrid attack for 10 years... that's my assessment. At some point, we will provide an overall picture, that moment is not very far away, and we will offer elements. There has been a gradual increase, on the one hand, in cyber attacks on infrastructures, on the other hand, in propaganda tools that have slowly but surely influenced various areas of society.
Nicușor Dan, the President of Romania
Moreover, the economic situation is fragile, with a huge budget deficit accumulating, fueled by massive military expenditures. In Russia, the deficit cannot be corrected through international loans and public policies due to sanctions, so economic imbalances are quickly transferred to the citizens, lowering the standard of living.
Also, the public revenue crisis is making the Kremlin increasingly dependent on China and India, two huge countries that absorb some of Russia's exported raw materials but set prices much lower than on the free market, limiting Kremlin revenues.
Putin Will Continue
Although Vladimir Putin is doing everything possible to show that he has control over the conflict, that he is not willing to compromise, being convinced that he will defeat Ukraine, in reality, we are witnessing a race against time, with Volodymyr Zelensky potentially gaining the upper hand in the medium term if the assistance from the US and European states proves to be substantial and consistent.
The attack on Poland aimed to provoke a crisis and a rupture within NATO regarding support for Ukraine, but its rejection avoided a dramatic situation and a possible escalation of the conflict.
From Russia's military behavior observed since the beginning of the conflict, it can be deduced that once on this path of attacking a NATO member state, Putin will continue. NATO's response must be one that discourages future actions because the stakes have just been raised at the Kremlin.