The situation of tariffs will not remain as it is. One of the following three things will happen, according to the opinions of several experts – Trump will negotiate and reduce them. He will capitulate, meaning he will withdraw them altogether, or Congress will come into play and modify the legislation.
Regardless of which of the three options will prevail in the near future, a combination of them being also possible, Donald Trump’s mandate has failed, turning a large part of society against him.
He will never be forgiven for having weakened the American economy and endangered the well-being, stability, and prospects of millions of people.
Why Trump made such a crazy decision has been discussed before, the main reason being his belief as a real estate broker that the world is taking advantage of the USA, imposing high tariffs on American products, while the United States taxes little or not at all goods imported from abroad. Hence, a huge deficit, meaning the loss of a significant amount of money that if recovered through tariffs would solve all of America's problems, according to Donald Trump.
But this is a simplistic, disconnected from reality thinking, criticized by a number of experts who have explained that the deficit of the world's largest economy does not decrease following a global crisis.
The victory in elections and the popularity of the MAGA movement he created have given Donald Trump the confidence and power to apply his own economic vision on a global scale.
One of the great sins of politicians is the fact that they often confuse success in electoral competitions with expertise.
Why is professional competence confused with political performance?
A party leader who becomes the president of a country, for example, is the most performing politician of that particular moment, but by no means the best general, economist, lawyer, scientist, or artist in that respective country.
Most of the time, political victory is based on anything but scientific knowledge, expertise, experience in a field, or mastery of a profession.
For example, Romania has a prime minister who cannot find his high school diploma, ministers with plagiarized doctoral theses, parliamentarians specialized in video chat, etc. Our country is not much different from others in this regard.
Donald Trump became the president of the USA, combining the large financial resources he had at his disposal, coming from a wealthy family, and the immense success he had in a television show, "The Apprentice," in which he was the main protagonist, which aired from 2004 until January 2017, the moment when Trump took over his first presidential term.
The popularity given by NBC, the largest television network in the USA, and the money offered him a corridor to the White House, Trump also taking advantage of the leadership crisis in the Republican Party, affected by the two mandates of Democrat Obama.
What Liz Truss Tells Us
Politics is a profession. It has its own rules, ways of exercise, rigor, and successful strategies. Because the vote is universal and establishes the hierarchy of leadership in a party, village, city, country, political competition is full of emotion, attention from voters, and affected by the various persuasion methods exercised by those involved.
Because so many forces and individuals are involved, the winner often accumulates a power that he does not know how to use responsibly. This is the case with Trump, but not only with him.
The best example to present the impact that the decision of the American president had on the global economy is that of Liz Truss, the British Prime Minister with the shortest term in the history of the United Kingdom.
In September 2022, she replaces Boris Johnson, who loses the support of the party in a complicated context where the whole world was affected by the Covid-19 pandemic.
In an internal competition, Liz Truss, a philosophy graduate from Oxford, won against Rishi Sunak, proposing an irresistible program, a £45 billion tax reduction, a 45% decrease in income tax, and massive borrowing from international markets to reduce energy prices.
Although several experts, including representatives of the Bank of England, told her that implementing such a program would generate an economic catastrophe, health, education, and pension systems would remain unfunded, she went ahead, supported by the populists in the Conservative Party, who hoped that the entire middle and upper class of Great Britain would support the massive tax cuts.
Shortly after becoming prime minister on September 5, 2022, she announced in Parliament the program with radical economic measures. The reaction of financial markets and the population was brutal and rapid, with shares plummeting, and people taking to the streets to protest for fear of losing their pensions, social benefits, and free healthcare.
Although she announced later that she would modify the governance program, the damage had been done, and public support collapsed. She subsequently resigned. On October 20, 2022.
Steps Back
The similarity between Liz Truss and Donald Trump lies in the fact that both came to power with a brilliant economic plan in their pockets, which turned out to be a catastrophe.
Similarly, both, after imposing it, were shocked by the reaction of financial markets and public opinion. So they quickly backtracked.
Like Liz Truss, after the crisis caused, Donald Trump will also lose a lot of credibility.
Unfortunately, the tension and global distrust triggered by Trump's chaotic decisions are much deeper and more extensive than those caused by Liz Truss, which mainly affected only Great Britain. She was quickly replaced by the Conservative Party, while Trump's term will only end in January 2029.
"What is happening now is not at all surprising. Trump is a guy who told Americans to inject themselves with detergent during the pandemic, who sent his supporters to attack the Capitol. And now it is correct to say that he has wiped out more wealth on his own than anyone else who has ever lived on this planet," said Mark Kelly, a senator from the opposition Democratic Party.
The Amazement of the American President
Donald Trump, after the collapse of global stock markets and the announcement of an impending recession, backed down, announcing that he is willing to negotiate with everyone, except with China, whom he threatened with a new 50% increase in import tariffs.
Political commentators say it's a ruse, and the American president is pressured by his cabinet members to step back, but he doesn't quite know how, desperately trying to maintain his authority.
"Last week, Trump launched an economic Pearl Harbor against almost all trading nations globally. Today he seems perplexed that other countries are not helping him escape the consequences of his own act of aggression and bad faith. America First means America Alone," wrote journalist David Frum, The Atlantic, on his X/ Twitter account.
The strategy of the American president has once again proven to be a bankrupt one, as in the case of Ukraine. It starts with a big promise to quickly solve the problem, then he is amazed and destabilized by the fact that the response received is not the expected one, and those he threatens are not scared and do not bow down to him.