At this moment, the only locomotive-type candidate, above the party’s score, is Elena Lasconi.
Considering her lower notoriety compared to the other candidates, she has room for growth, and since taking over the candidacy, she has been intensely campaigning in all directions, at Untold, at the monastery, and at countryside gatherings.
The common element is the constant direct contact with the electorate, to the detriment of the television studio. And indeed, Mrs. Lasconi has very strong assets.
Strengths
She is the most charismatic among the candidates. She has a certain type of positive and magnetic energy. After 10 years with a cold and absent president, there will be many who will primarily want to be inspired, they will want a candidate who makes them feel good, thus focusing more on sensation than on content.
Furthermore, Mrs. Lasconi has the image of a winner. Sure, Câmpulung is not a big city, she only got around 9,000 votes there.
But, as I said, it's easier to raise a child from a grade 8 to a 10 than from a 4 to a 6. Those votes were reaffirmed with an additional nearly 2,000 compared to the 2020 elections, in a red stronghold. Changing the course in this way is much harder than winning in a traditional anti-PSD big city.
Ideological fluidity is, paradoxically, an advantage, because it allows Mrs. Lasconi to move out of the party's electoral base and, with many crosses around her neck and God in every sentence, to access conservative areas from all other parties.
So she can attract massively from PNL, especially given that they have a very modest candidate, but also from the AUR area, which is already tired of the caricatural leader who has hit the ceiling of his potential.
She stumbled with Dragnea's referendum, but recovered with a conciliatory formula, "there is room for everyone, I am in favor of civil partnership," and promised not to consider such a referendum again.
It might be a bit much for the USR progressive core, but they don't have other options. So the risk of losses there is very low.
And, last but not least, Mrs. Lasconi doesn't have a political past where all sorts of skeletons could resurface, like the ones she threw at Marcel Ciolacu.
Therefore, with a linear path, Mrs. Lasconi has real chances to enter the second round, with the mobilization of the USR electorate who finally see they have a leader and a viable candidate, and with substantial portions taken from PNL and AUR.
But maintaining a linear path is very difficult, with major risks, especially because Mrs. Lasconi, as she profiles herself as a candidate with potential, has also become a target.
Risks
1. Risk of discrediting. The episode with the husband employed in the USR parliamentary group without a competition is a warning signal, especially since Mrs. Lasconi has not been able to provide convincing explanations.
The fact that the accusation comes from PSD may be irrelevant only to the very loyal electorate, but it can be problematic for the electorate that Mrs. Lasconi wants to attract by convincing them that she is different from the old political class with its flaws.
2. Risk of incompetence. It's hard to evaluate how well Mrs. Lasconi handles the major topics discussed in a presidential campaign. Sure, in Romania, these topics are not deeply explored, generally scandals are discussed, and emotions are ridden.
Equally true is that few Romanians truly know the president's duties, and if they knew their effect, it wouldn't increase interest in foreign policy, but probably drastically decrease interest in the presidential function.
But even so, discussions and questions about foreign policy, economy, education, national defense will exist. And surely, Mrs. Lasconi will be targeted with traps, counting precisely on the fact that she is a novice in top-level political issues.
For some, again, it won't matter, because sensation beats substance, but for some, it will. And if the situation becomes ridiculous, it will matter to everyone.
3. Risk of "taking off." If things go well for a while and the percentages increase significantly, there is a risk, for any candidate, to get ahead of themselves, to consider the fight won, to relax, and to make serious mistakes.
It's a risk especially for those with few matches under their belt, and Mrs. Lasconi doesn't have many national-level matches.
Would she be a good president of Romania? The answer to this question cannot be given yet. It fundamentally depends on points 1, 2, and 3. Certainly, however, the potential exists.