As American President Donald Trump intensifies efforts to force a negotiated end to Russia’s large-scale invasion, a crucial question looms over Washington, Kiev, and Moscow: What happens next – and can this move yield anything?
According to analysts, the answer is becoming increasingly clear. Despite pressures from Washington, signs leading up to American envoy Steve Witkoff’s trip to Moscow this week appear bleak.
Just days before the U.S.-Ukraine consultations in Florida on November 30, Russian President Vladimir Putin signaled that he sees no reason to make significant concessions. He once again linked a ceasefire to Ukraine's withdrawal from the unoccupied territory. And Kiev is not willing to comply with the Kremlin's maximalist demands.
“Something significant on the ground needs to change for one or both parties to conclude that they have little or nothing to gain from continuing the war,” said international politics expert Jenny Mathers.
As Trump's team tries to revive stalled diplomacy, Kyiv Independent explains why the plan is destined to fail and what lies ahead.
Ukraine and Russia at Opposing Poles
When the U.S. presented its 28-point peace proposal - which closely resembles a document Russia presented to Washington in October - it was met with shock and dismay in Ukraine.
Its key points, including recognizing Russian control over Crimea and Donbas, limiting the Ukrainian army, and halting Kiev's aspirations for NATO, reflected the Kremlin's long-standing demands.
According to Oleksiy Melnyk, co-director of Foreign Relations and International Security Programs at the Razumkov Center in Kiev, “it seems that the plan was designed to help Ukraine capitulate.”
And there is no indication that Russia will accept any proposal that does not fulfill this objective.
While Kiev reiterates its “red lines” in negotiations - no restrictions on alliances or armed forces and no recognition of Russian occupation - it is clear that these directly clash with Russia's objectives: annexing territories, blocking Ukraine's path to NATO, and weakening its defense capabilities.
A revised plan, developed during discussions between American and Ukrainian officials in separate meetings in Geneva and Florida, has not been made public.
The most controversial issues, such as territory, have been “set aside” for further discussions, Ukraine stated - and it is precisely these subjects that could lead Moscow to reject the new plan.
“Ukrainian troops will withdraw from the territories they occupy, and then the fighting will stop,” Putin said on November 27, apparently referring to Ukrainian regions that Russia claimed in the simulated 2022 referendum.
“To make Russia change its position, it must face serious and prolonged failures or lose the support of key allies,” Mathers told Kyiv Independent.
At the same time, the Trump administration has failed to produce a “coherent strategy” to press Russia to reach an agreement, says Mykola Bielieskov, a researcher at the National Institute for Strategic Studies and senior analyst at the Come Back Alive project.
As long as Russia can sustain advances on the battlefield, Putin has no incentive “to negotiate based on the idea of freezing the front line and setting aside political differences,” Bielieskov adds.
The Battlefield Landscape
Using the autumn foggy weather and its numerical advantage, Russia has made slow but steady progress in the south and east, engaging small infantry units.
Analysts say Russian forces now control most of Pokrovsk, a key fortress city in the Donetsk region. Defense expert Viktor Kevliuk warns that the situation in the Huliaipole sector of the Zaporizhia region has become “the most threatening and dynamic”.
As Ukraine continues to face labor shortages and external military assistance dwindles, the country faces a harsh winter.
However, although U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll reportedly told Ukrainian officials that it would be better to quickly reach a peace agreement than face defeat, experts push back.
“The situation today is very difficult, but that is not a reason to stop fighting,” Kevliuk said.
Melnyk notes that Russia is only gaining “small tactical gains at an extremely high price, about 100 deaths or serious injuries per square kilometer.”
According to the monitoring group DeepState, Russia captured about 267 square kilometers in October, which is about the same as in September and represents about 0.04% of Ukrainian territory. However, the advance accelerated in November, with Moscow's troops allegedly capturing another 505 square kilometers.
The Institute for the Study of War estimates that, if Moscow's forces advance at the current pace, they would capture the rest of the Donetsk region by August 2027.
“Overall, the strategic situation on the battlefield remains unchanged,” Melnyk said. “It is a war of attrition, with no prospects for either side to suffer a significant military defeat.”
What Could Actually Pressure Russia?
But just as the collapse of Ukraine's defenses is not imminent, neither is Russia facing defeat anytime soon.
Anton Barbashin, a researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said that nothing suggests that Moscow will face a large enough setback to change its strategy.
“Developments on the battlefield can affect decision-making. But for now, it does not seem realistic for Russia to suffer a military defeat soon,” Barbashin said.
So, the obvious question arises: What could force Russia to abandon its maximalist demands on Ukraine?
Economically, Russia is suffering - but it is far from being destroyed. “The Russian economy is suffering, but it is not yet in collapse,” added Barbashin, stating that the system shows enough resilience for Putin to extend it for another year without facing existential pressures.
Washington's strongest leverage would be sanctioning China or India, Russia's main buyers of oil.
Earlier this year, Trump suggested imposing tariffs on states that buy large volumes of Russian oil. But so far, he has only penalized India with a 25% tariff - a symbolic move.
Mikhail Polyansky, a researcher at the Research Department for International Institutions at PRIF, said that the U.S. will not risk a blow to its struggling economy that tariffs could bring.
In short, the Kremlin feels little external pressure.
What's Next?
The next major step in Trump's peace process is the meeting between U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and Putin in Moscow on December 2. Witkoff is expected to present Putin with the revised version of the peace agreement - one that is now much more acceptable to Ukraine.
But expectations are extremely low. Alexandra Filippenko, an expert in U.S.-Russia relations, told Kyiv Independent that the meeting will only yield official statements and likely new communication channels with Trump's team.
“But it certainly will not be progress or any real agreement,” she said, adding that any significant decisions will be negotiated in private.
Filippenko said the process has resembled a Russian information operation from the start. A source within the Ukrainian President's Office previously told Kyiv Independent that Witkoff drafted the initial plan directly in coordination with Kirill Dmitriev, Russia's chief economic negotiator.
According to Filippenko, the purpose of the initial plan was to force Ukraine to reject it - portraying Kiev as unreasonable and undermining its partnership with Washington.
Bloomberg's November 25 leak supports this view. In a transcript of a recorded conversation, Kremlin advisers discussed the possibility of Witkoff presenting a Russian proposal as a U.S. initiative.
The Endless Cycle
Natia Seskuria, an associate researcher at the Royal United Services Institute, told Kyiv Independent that if this dynamic continues, it will likely lead to multiple rounds of negotiations with little real progress.
“Putin wants to maintain the appearance of being open to diplomacy, as he does not want to be seen as the one leaving first,” she added.
Russia sees continued fighting as the strongest alternative to any agreement, said Emily Harding, vice president of the Defense and Security Department at CSIS, to Kyiv Independent.
“Russia's best alternative to a negotiated agreement is to continue the fighting, and it is willing to continue indefinitely. As long as Moscow believes it can win on the battlefield, it has little reason to make concessions,” she said.
Therefore, the war will likely continue.