The outcome of the Hungarian parliamentary elections will have a major impact on all of Europe. Viktor Orban will attempt to secure a sixth term as prime minister, the fifth consecutive one, jeopardising EU support for Ukraine and accelerating Russia’s threat to Europe.
For Romania, the result is also important due to the influence that UDMR (Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania) has on national politics. The Hungarian party has public support of over 5% and is part of the governing coalition. Over time, it has become an arbitrator in negotiations between parties to form parliamentary majorities.
UDMR has always aligned with the political trends emanating from Budapest, in recent years becoming a significant supporter of Viktor Orban.
FIDESZ, the ruling party, is counting on at least 100,000 votes from the Hungarian minority in Romania, individuals who hold dual citizenship.
However, after the 2024 European Parliament elections, when the opposition party TISZA, led by Peter Magyar, although losing to FIDESZ, garnered 30% of the votes, the discourse and attitude of UDMR towards Viktor Orban have slightly shifted.
Hungarian politicians in Romania have an exceptional ability to negotiate on multiple fronts and manage complex survival strategies, caught in the dynamics of the complicated relationship between Romania and Hungary.
A victory for the Opposition in the elections on April 12 and the departure of Viktor Orban from power would be a gain for the governing coalition in Romania.
UDMR is expected to position itself more visibly alongside Ilie Bolojan, making the strategy of Sorin Grindeanu, the leader of PSD, to provoke the removal of the current prime minister even more challenging.
In a way, in two weeks, political stability in Romania is also at stake in Budapest.
Electoral Maneuvers
In Hungary, the battle of opinion polls is similar to ours, with parties bombarding voters with partisan sociological studies to mobilize supporters of one party or another and mislead those in the opposing camp.
However, upon careful analysis of independent sources, Viktor Orban is no longer the favorite. TISZA, the main opposition party, has the first chance to win the electoral contest. It remains to be seen by what margin.
Due to the frequent redrawing of electoral districts by the Orban government in recent years, there is a possibility that TISZA may receive more votes at the polls in absolute numbers than FIDESZ, but end up with fewer parliamentarians when distributing them.
For simplification, in the event that the opposition party led by Péter Magyar wins the elections with a lead of just 6% of the votes cast, practically, following the numerous changes made by the government to electoral legislation, Viktor Orban's party may obtain a greater number of parliamentarians, potentially blocking the change of power in Hungary.
At this moment, two weeks before the elections, the polling aggregator of the European publication Politico indicates an advantage for TISZA, the opposition party, of 15 percentage points over FIDESZ, Orban's party.
This is the largest difference recorded so far between the two parties, somehow indicating a collapse in support for the current prime minister, amid an intense and dirty election campaign.
Politico Polls of polls, an aggregator of opinion studies published up to that date. What the European news and analysis site does is apply an algorithm to weigh the numbers based on when the opinion poll was conducted, the credibility of the company or institute that conducted it, their accuracy in previous elections, and the political affiliations of the opinion polling firms. The algorithm used is secret.
Trump and Putin Vote for Orban
From the historical results so far, it appears that errors may occur in last-minute electoral mobilizations. For example, in Hungary, a major unknown regarding the outcome of the parliamentary elections is the voter turnout in rural areas, where voters generally support Viktor Orban.
At the end of last week, a poll conducted by the Median Institute, known for its impartiality and past accuracy, published a survey in which the opposition party TISZA is rated with 58% of the votes, while Viktor Orban's FIDESZ is at 35%.
The Median report also indicates a huge voter turnout of 89%. In the previous elections in 2022, 70% of voters cast their ballots.
It should be noted that opinion polls, even if correctly conducted, capture a snapshot in time. In the next two weeks of campaigning, many events will unfold, potentially altering the current balance of power.
From any perspective on the situation in Hungary, Viktor Orban's power system has begun to crack. Corruption, declining living standards, a radical anti-European stance, and a dangerous proximity to Russia have led to a reduced enthusiasm to vote for FIDESZ.
The open support of Donald Trump and the hidden support of Vladimir Putin for the most autocratic political regime in the European Union seem no longer sufficient for victory in the elections on April 12.
16 Visits to Moscow
A huge espionage scandal involving Péter Szijjártó, Hungary's Foreign Minister, accused of transmitting discussions from the European Council directly to Sergey Lavrov, his Russian counterpart, exploded in the international press last week.
The Hungarian official admitted to calling Lavrov while in Brussels but denied providing sensitive information.
Szijjártó's collaboration with Russia had been well known in recent years. He made 16 visits to Moscow from 2022, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. He frequently posted on social media about his trips to Moscow, with his latest meeting with Vladimir Putin taking place on March 4, 2026.
“I'm glad to see you. You chair the intergovernmental commission on behalf of Hungary, which is actively functioning. You visit Russia frequently. I am aware of your efforts to maintain a high level in our relations, despite the well-known challenges,” Vladimir Putin told the Hungarian Foreign Minister at their latest meeting.
Orban's Struggle with Independent Journalists
In response to revelations about the espionage actions of the Hungarian official, Viktor Orban has exerted pressure on prosecutors, urging them to initiate criminal proceedings against the journalist who reported on Péter Szijjártó's activities and how he spied on EU meetings in favor of Russia.
It is very likely that the espionage scandal involving the Hungarian foreign minister, with the shock and echoes it has produced internationally, as well as Viktor Orban's violent reaction, will define the political debates in the next two weeks of the campaign, and their effect on public opinion may not necessarily be in favor of FIDESZ.