Romania has officially entered a technical recession, as data published by the National Institute of Statistics (INS) shows that the economy has declined in the last two quarters of 2025.
Furthermore, official statistics have also revised previous estimates downwards, marking the beginning of last year as a contraction quarter.
- Romania was also in recession in 2024, during the Ciolacu era, but Grindeanu blames Bolojan
- Bolojan explains the recession and promises it won't last long. He says it's not a crisis, but a correction with causes in the past
- Confronted with the hidden recession from his own mandate, Ciolacu still accuses hair-splitting and statistical manipulation
According to INS, in the fourth quarter of 2025, the Gross Domestic Product decreased by 1.9% in real terms compared to the previous quarter.
This is the most pronounced quarterly decline since 2012, excluding the pandemic period.
As the third quarter of 2025 was also negative (-0.1%, revised from -0.2%), Romania meets the definition of technical recession: two consecutive quarters of economic decline.
For the whole year 2025, the economy recorded a slight growth of +0.6% compared to 2024, but the quarterly evolution shows significant volatility and a downward trend in the second half of the year.
Significant revisions: 2024 and Q1 2025 in the negative
The new data bring important corrections for previous periods. The first quarter of 2025, initially announced with a growth of +0.1%, was revised to -0.6%.
Moreover, the first two quarters of 2024 saw declines of -0.4% each, meaning that the economy first entered a technical recession at the beginning of the 2024 election year, slightly recovered in the second half of the year, only to contract again in 2025.
Quarterly evolution of the economy
Year 2025:
- Q1: -0.6%
- Q2: +1%
- Q3: -0.1%
- Q4: -1.9%
Year 2024:
- Q1: -0.4%
- Q2: -0.4%
- Q3: +0.6%
- Q4: +1%
The data published by INS actually indicate a slowing trend that began as early as the end of 2022. Against a backdrop of high inflation, the combination of economic stagnation and high prices has been described by economists as a stagflation episode.
The announcement made by INS immediately impacted the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BVB), which opened lower on all indices on Friday's session, with a turnover estimated at 21.04 million lei (4.13 million euros) after 40 minutes of trading, according to Agerpres.
What does technical recession mean
Technical recession is defined as a decline in GDP in real terms for two consecutive quarters compared to previous periods. It is a statistical indicator, but with real effects: postponed investments, more cautious consumption, and stricter lending.
For citizens, this can mean tempering wage increases and delaying major purchases. For companies, declining orders and higher borrowing costs can lead to frozen investments and hiring.