President Donald Trump stated in a new interview aired on Wednesday that the war with Iran is „very close to ending.”
He also presented perhaps the most comprehensive argument to date that the war justified the rise in energy prices and stock market volatility. He said it all comes down to preventing Iran from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon.
"To stop this, it was certainly worth it," Trump told Fox Business Network, claiming that oil prices did not rise as much as expected. "I think we're doing very well. We will win this confrontation quite soon. We've militarily defeated them completely," he added.
But this is an optimistic view of the situation that does not align with Americans' perceptions.
In fact, the war is becoming increasingly unpopular. And as more detailed polls have emerged, we learn more about why this is happening.
CNN presents some key points in this regard:
Americans do not believe the objectives are being achieved
Although Trump has stated that the war is nearing its end and represents a success, Americans do not see it that way. And certainly, they do not perceive it as a strategic success.
A poll conducted by CBS News-YouGov over the weekend showed that 36% of respondents said military operations were a success. Another 31% said it was too early to tell, while 33% said it was not a success.
But Americans are even less convinced about the strategic aspect. Only 25% said the war was a strategic success — much fewer than the 42% who considered it a failure.
And when it comes to key objectives, Americans overwhelmingly do not believe they are being met:
- Only 7% said that Iranian leaders are now more pro-U.S. (despite Trump's claim that Iran has a "new regime" that is "quite reasonable").
- Only 8% said the war has prevented Tehran from threatening other countries (despite Trump's statement that the war has "stopped" Iran from taking control or eliminating the Middle East).
- And only 11% said it has definitively stopped Iran's nuclear program (despite Trump's assertion that this is the number one objective and that his strikes in June on Iran "obliterated" nuclear facilities.)
Even Trump himself may admit that the last objective is still in progress. But the main idea is that Americans simply do not believe the war will achieve it.
In fact, they do not even believe the war has had a positive overall effect in this regard.
A recent survey by Pew Research Center showed that only 27% of Americans said the war will ultimately make Iran's development of a nuclear weapon "less likely." This is the same percentage as those who thought it makes it "more likely." (Another 40% were neutral.)
They do not see the benefits
Trump's argument, as presented in the Fox Business interview, was that today's costs will be worth it for the long-term benefits.
But Americans are not only concerned about short-term economic costs; they do not see long-term security gains either.
A new Ipsos poll this week showed that 51% said the benefits of the war would not be worth the costs, compared to only 24% who said they would. (The rest were neutral.)
The poll also asked whether the war would make U.S. national security better or worse "in the long term." Only 26% said it would improve national security, while 41% said it would actually worsen it.
And a survey by the University of Massachusetts Amherst showed a similar level of skepticism.
Only about 3 in 10 Americans said the war would make the world "more stable," compared to half who disagreed.
Republicans are not enthusiastic
Despite the fact that supporters identifying as MAGA endorse this war, there is increasing evidence that Trump's broader-defined base is quite skeptical.
In many polls, 20% or 25% of Republicans and Trump voters disapprove of how Trump is handling the war in general. But there is also a middle ground, more unclear. These people do not directly oppose the war, but they also do not truly see its purpose. The Ipsos poll showed that only 57% of Republicans believed the war would improve U.S. national security in the long term, and only 55% said the cost-benefit analysis would be worth it.
Similarly, the CBS poll showed that only 56% of Republicans said the war was successful in terms of strategic interests.
In both cases, the majority of others opted for a middle ground. A significant portion of Trump's base, clearly, is not fully convinced.
Confidence in Trump is declining
Even as Trump increasingly adopts a more militaristic and interventionist foreign policy, Americans have less confidence in him to see it through.
The Pew survey includes some quite staggering charts and figures:
- The percentage of Americans lacking confidence that Trump will make good decisions regarding Iran has increased from 50% during the 2024 campaign to 56% after the June attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities and to 64% in March.
- We have seen similar increases regarding the war in Ukraine and relations with China.
- Only 66% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents are at least "somewhat" confident in how Trump is handling the Iran situation.
Similarly, the CBS poll showed that only 23% of Americans had "a great deal" of confidence in Trump to make the right decisions regarding Iran. Another 18% had "some" confidence, while about 6 in 10 had "little" or "none at all."
The war has exacerbated the inflation issue for Trump
Perhaps the most worrying political aspect for Trump and Republicans ahead of the midterm elections is inflation, which has surged amid the oil shock.
Americans were already dissatisfied with Trump on this issue — and the situation has worsened for him since the start of the war. The percentage of Americans disapproving of how he handles inflation was 67%, 68%, 69%, and 71% in recent polls.
It is quite rare for 7 in 10 Americans to agree on something, but Trump's failure in handling inflation is now one of those things.
And it seems that this also affects the overall assessment of the president regarding the economy. A CNN survey from two weeks ago showed that his approval rating on this issue dropped to 31% — lower than it has ever been for both him and Joe Biden.