Gerald Funke, the Chief of the General Staff of the Joint Support Command of the German army, has warned that Russia could attack NATO countries in the next two to three years, with Germany being at the center of any potential conflict.
The command led by Funke, established after last year’s major reorganization of the German armed forces, is developing a modern version of the Cold War-era system for requisitioning trucks, wagons, supplies, and personnel on a large scale.
Lieutenant General Funke has also initiated "reserve agreements" with Deutsche Bahn, the national railway operator, to ensure that military transport trains can be deployed within three days of notification.
In the worst-case scenario, logistics would be one of the main challenges. Tens of thousands of allied soldiers would need to be moved to the frontlines in conditions where major road and rail routes could be affected by Russian sabotage, cyberattacks, or missile strikes, Funke stated in an interview with The Times.
"It is important for us to keep Germany as a logistical hub and manage supply lines for as long as possible, which means that if one route fails, we will have the option to use others instead," he said.
Too much time is lost
Another issue in the event of a conflict with Russia would be the large number of casualties. The German army (Bundeswehr) operates five hospitals with a total of 1,800 beds, which could quickly be overwhelmed. To prepare, the Joint Support Command and the Federal Ministry of Health have divided the network of civilian hospitals into four sections that can be reserved for casualties in a crisis.
"While in Afghanistan we had a regrettable but manageable number of casualties, now we have to plan for the possibility of 1,000 casualties per day. The more you look at this, the more complex it becomes and the harder it is to imagine," explained the German general.
Germany's legal framework is not helpful either, Funke emphasized. Certain military measures can only be activated if two-thirds of Parliament approve a declaration of "state of alert" or "state of national defense." The general warned that this could be complicated, given that over a third of parliamentary seats are held by radical left and far-right parties friendly to Russia.
Analysts have noted that Germany may take too long to transition from peacetime to crisis. Funke added that the strict separation between peace and war is an outdated legacy of the 20th century, now questioned by the scale of modern hybrid warfare.
Germany is preparing seriously
The German Ministry of Defense confirmed last year that it is working on an emergency plan to move hundreds of thousands of NATO troops onto German soil in the event of a war with Russia. The emergency strategy, called "Germany's Operations Plan" (OPLAN DEU), aims to relocate 800,000 NATO troops and 200,000 vehicles to Germany in the event of a war with Russia.
According to Der Spiegel, German and NATO strategists are analyzing how to disperse the NATO's "giant force" on the country's main roadways, with special attention given to the 480-kilometer-long Autobahn 2, starting from the western city of Oberhausen to the outskirts of Berlin and from there to the country's east, near the Polish border. The military leadership expects this highway, along with its numerous key bridges, to be a prime target for Russian attacks in case of war, the German publication reported.
German officials have warned that the threat of a direct clash between NATO and Russia is a serious and realistic risk. And NATO Secretary-General, Mark Rutte, warned in December that Europe must prepare for a war similar to that of our grandparents' time and rapidly increase defense spending.
On the other hand, the Kremlin has repeatedly threatened with military actions - even nuclear strikes - against NATO states for their support for Ukraine. Moscow officials have stated that a large-scale invasion of Ukraine is a preemptive strike against NATO and openly claimed that Russia is now at war with the "collective West led by the US."
Could 2027 be the year of the Russian invasion?
General Richard Shirreff, former Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe, has warned that Russia could launch a large-scale war in the Baltic countries as early as 2027, a concern reiterated by Danish intelligence reports.
However, former Lithuanian Defense Minister Laurynas Kasčiūnas has expressed skepticism about this forecast. "I wouldn't necessarily expect that in 2027. It all depends on how the war in Ukraine unfolds - how long the Ukrainians will continue to fight, if there is a ceasefire, and if sanctions are lifted," he said.
But Russian analyst and blogger Dmitry Chernyshev has warned against underestimating Moscow's readiness to act aggressively.
"Putin's military economy is running at full capacity; he is less afraid of war than of peace. When the entire pyramid he has built collapses, hundreds of thousands of armed soldiers will return from the front, and there will be nothing left to justify reprisals. (...) Putin always acts the same way - in a difficult situation, he doubles his efforts to have something to negotiate with."