The political composition of the majority coalition and implicitly of the future government should not come as a surprise. It is, whether we like it or not, in line with the vote on December 1st. PSD won the election with its worst score in history, but it is the first among medium-sized parties. We no longer have any major ones.
PSD showed its strength when it announced that it was moving to the Opposition, practically demonstrating what the numbers theoretically showed ab initio, that a non-extremist majority cannot be formed without it. And it was politically natural for the discussions to start from there.
Marcel Ciolacu's Heavy Inheritance
As I would point out, Marcel Ciolacu's remaining in the position of prime minister is a burden he must carry to the end.
While it was also the only way for him to remain at the top of PSD after the electoral disaster, it is fair that his name is associated with the political cost of the misfortunes of the previous mandate.
Marcel Ciolacu's heavy inheritance is only fair to be borne by Marcel Ciolacu himself. And if the people were so dissatisfied, I don't see why they voted mostly for PSD, even more than the votes actually counted if we think about the confusion caused by the two PSD clone parties.
The Key from UDMR
It is noteworthy the evolution of UDMR, which achieved a score well above expectations given the massive voter turnout and, moreover, is indispensable.
Represented by a leader who did not negotiate for himself, UDMR has only two ministries, but they are essential. Development, a crown jewel, which Czeke Attila has previously successfully led. One of those who praised Minister Cseke's performance, in the perspective of a mayor, was Elena Lasconi.
But the most spectacular is the acquisition of Finance, a crucial ministry. It is very likely that Tanczos Barna will be more efficient and certainly more serious than a PSD or PNL minister. The finance hot potato is hotter than ever, so PNL and PSD had every reason to pass it on.
I would say that one of the keys to the presidential elections lies with UDMR. If Finance performs well, the wave of anger will calm down, especially in the rational potential area. If Tanczos Barna fails, the wave will turn into a tsunami. What does a good performance mean? It is relative to panicked expectations. People do not expect miracles, but coherence and predictability, respect for public money, equity, and honest accountability.
If UDMR delivers this, it will strike a serious blow to nationalism. If it fails, it will give it wings. It is certain that for the first time UDMR will have a minister in the Supreme Council of National Defense (CSAT), which, as Kelemen Hunor stated in an interview on Europa FM, was previously an excluded hypothesis.
Overall, PSD got what it wanted and needed, because it is sine qua non, PNL got more ministries than the proportion of mandates, not exactly what it wanted, such as Development or Transport, and most likely will provide the common presidential candidate (which deserves separate analysis), while UDMR changed the game.
What Has Been Chosen
Regarding the nominal composition of the Government, we notice different visions. PSD kept its ministers. Regardless of their performance, this total immobility after the recent elections signals that PSD either understood absolutely nothing or the party leadership is so weakened that it cannot afford to rock the boat at all.
It is surprising that PSD agreed to take over the Justice Ministry, a ministry with which it has major traumas, which is why I believe that for at least a while, they will try not to step on any toes. The new minister is a criminal lawyer, which in itself is not a fault, I have all the respect for lawyers who do their job honestly, and criminal lawyers do not defend wrongdoers.
What worries me is that he was included on the PSD list for the Chamber on the fiefdom of Olguța Vasilescu, which does not guarantee attachment to an independent judiciary, on the contrary, I would say.
PNL bet on remarkable changes. And on their list, there are two remarkable names. First, the entry of the rector of UBB, Daniel David, is at least a PR move, let's hope it won't remain just that. It is remarkable the transition of Mr. Hurezeanu to Foreign Affairs, who after a catastrophe and a dry technocrat, needed a diplomat with whom you wouldn't be ashamed to go out into the world.
Among the remaining names, while there is a clear logic for Cătălin Predoiu in the context of Schengen, it is very difficult for me to understand why Marcel Boloș ended up at the European Funds, one of the most inefficient ministers with a very bad image. It is truly inexplicable how he always ends up in a ministerial position.
Does the new Cabinet meet public expectations? To a small extent, as I have shown. It seems to be a continuation of a formula sanctioned by the electorate. But the real test is just beginning.
If they manage to change their attitude and communication, if they show more common sense and respect, a bit of humility if possible, they may earn credit. If not, it will be a disaster in the presidential elections.