October comes with new price increases, and the first signals from the market target food. Producers have already begun to notify traders that they are raising prices for dairy and meat products, due to higher costs of fuel, energy, and gas.
Estimates vary from one category to another. For dairy products, increases could reach 6-8%, with a peak in the case of cheese, while for salami and other meat products, price increases of 3-4% are announced, according to information obtained by News.ro from the market.
Pressures are also present outside the food sector. Economic analyst Adrian Negrescu estimates that services could experience the largest price increases this autumn, of 15-20%, while for clothing, footwear, electronics, and appliances, increases could reach 7-10%.
"Unfortunately, inflation is likely to rise again this autumn due to the increase in energy prices, gas, and a significant rise in fuel prices. This new wave of inflation will significantly impact prices, with services taking the lead, where increases will exceed 15-20%. Food prices will see a more moderate increase of 4-5%, while non-food products, from clothing to footwear, electronics, and appliances, will experience price hikes between 7-10%," stated Adrian Negrescu.
Negrescu also highlights the exchange rate. A depreciation of the leu against the euro would put additional pressure on prices, especially considering that a significant portion of products sold in Romania come from imports.
Negrescu expects inflation to alternate between periods of growth and decline in the next 6-12 months and says that the evolution of prices could also be influenced by international interest rates.
However, there is a limit to how much companies can pass on costs to customers. "The only good news is that price increases are like an elastic. If you stretch it too much, it breaks; in other words, if you raise prices too much, you risk being left with unsold goods, a situation especially true in the food products area, where the decrease in purchasing power is most strongly felt," said Negrescu.
Food Producers: Costs Are Increasingly Reflected in Prices
Dragoş Frumosu, president of the National Federation of Food Industry Unions, says that energy, gas, and fuel represent approximately 10-12% of the costs of a food product. The accumulated price increases in recent months are starting to be more visible on the shelves.
"Processors are walking a fine line, making all sorts of calculations because sales have already decreased due to price increases resulting from all the measures taken by the government lately, such as the increase in VAT, for example. Any decrease in sales leads to a reduction in production. I believe that compared to September, prices will be higher by 5-6% in October, and if we compare to the beginning of the year, we are talking, on average, about an increase of 10-15%," said Frumosu.
One of the categories where clear signs of price increases are already present is dairy products.
Representatives of Mirdatod Prod, the company that produces Ibăneşti Dairy, say that there is no longer predictability regarding the price of milk purchased from farmers, nor regarding fuel, energy, and packaging.
"We have no predictability on the purchase price of raw milk, nor on the evolution of prices for fuels, energy, or packaging. All these will certainly result in a price increase for Ibăneşti Dairy products, which we will request from all retailers by the end of the year," the company's representatives stated.
The producer says they are still calculating, but consider a price increase inevitable. "Currently, we are calculating, trying to find the best solutions for the end buyer, but unfortunately, this price increase is inevitable. How much does the increase mean? We do not have all the data now to give a specific answer, but definitely not less than 8%," claim Mirdatod officials.
Meat Under the Pressure of Energy and Gas
Increasing costs are also affecting the meat industry. George Safir, executive director of Familia Safir, a poultry producer from Vaslui, says that the issue is not only the price of fuels. Plastic packaging, electricity, and gas prices have also risen.
"Electricity and gas have a very large share in the production costs of our industry, especially in the cold season. Looking back, starting from April 1, 2026, when the price capping for natural gas expired, we have had successive increases, which currently place us at +60%, compared to 2025. Clearly, the drop in temperatures will lead to an increase in this percentage, so we do not rule out the possibility of this cost doubling," Safir stated.
The company has not yet decided whether to raise prices. "Given the context, we do feel pressure to increase prices, not to maintain profitability, but to continue operating. We are analyzing the figures, but we have not yet made a decision because we are not talking about a strictly mathematical calculation," said George Safir.
Traders Receive Almost Daily Notifications of Price Increases
Signals are already reaching stores. Feliciu Paraschiv, vice president of the National Association of Small and Medium Traders in Romania (ANCMMR), says that notifications regarding new prices arrive almost daily from producers and processors.
For October 1, two major dairy producers announced increases, and notifications also came from salami and other meat product processors.
"We receive warnings of price increases from processors and producers regularly, almost every day. Today we received them, and last week as well, but they are not the same. Generally, what we have observed is that they are somewhat grouped by categories. That is, for one reason or another, they start to increase, for example, from October 1, dairy products," Paraschiv said.
According to him, when two major producers in the same industry change prices, the trend usually gradually extends to the rest of the market.
"In a month or two, dairy products increase by six, eight percent, with cheese increasing the most, by 8%. We noticed that from October 1, two producers, processors of salami and cold cuts, have warned us. Not with large amounts, with 3-4%, depending on the category, 3% for salami, and 4% for pastrami," said Feliciu Paraschiv.
The trader says that in the past year, food prices have increased on average by about 5%, but there are products that have deviated significantly from this average. Coffee is one of them, and the increases are expected to continue.
The next wave could come for chocolate. "All producers have tried to keep the price down and use cocoa stocks, but they will no longer succeed. For chocolate, we have received warnings of price increases, which will be especially noticeable from November when sales increase," Paraschiv said.
What Official Data Shows
The most recent data from the National Institute of Statistics shows that the annual inflation rate was 6.2% in August 2026. Compared to the end of last year, prices have increased by 4.6%.
In August, food was 2.62% more expensive than in the same month of 2025, but slightly cheaper than in July. Non-food goods had prices 6.36% higher than a year earlier, and services recorded an annual growth of 11.28%.
Among foods, coffee increased by 15.2% in a year, eggs by 10.8%, and beef by 8.5%.
Much stronger increases were recorded for fuels: in August, diesel was 34.61% more expensive than a year earlier, and gasoline was 25.49% more expensive. Compared to July, both had increases of over 6%.