In a discussion with political consultant Cristian Andrei, the Political Rating Agency reviewed the main four candidates who have chances to reach the presidential final and described the context and main themes of the electoral campaign.
„We are now in a situation of repeating the first round from last autumn and we have a kind of second-hand candidates, who are not necessarily the most convincing,” explained Cristian Andrei.
„These are not the type of candidates who have prepared for a year or two to create a profile, to attract the preferences of part of the electorate. They are opportunistic candidates and that’s why they are not well-known, and people don’t have a strong connection with them. Except for George Simion, all the others, somehow, are trying their luck and didn’t really know how far they would go.”
"The number of undecided voters remains very high. Think that, in autumn, in November, both in our survey, from the Political Rating Agency, and in other opinion polls, with two days before the vote, with a number of well-known candidates, there was a percentage of 30% of voters who did not declare who they would vote for or were undecided. Even more so, I believe this percentage will remain high until the end."
"I think there is room for surprises in the sense that at least we will only know at the last moment who made it to the second round. In fact, all polls are conducted on voters in Romania. We will probably have between 600,000 and 1,000,000 people from the diaspora who will determine the final result, just like in November. Then there was a very small difference between Elena Lasconi and Marcel Ciolacu, which the diaspora precisely influenced."
"On social media, in Facebook groups and on TikTok, there is a lot of energy, so to speak. The question is whether the elections will be able to be protected from external influences and from the kind of asymmetric campaigns that existed in the autumn, because those campaigns added fuel to the fire."
"These communities on social media already exist, they are formed, and many are authentic. And there, when the elections come, there is quite a strong mobilization and agitation. Most of those in the diaspora would probably have voted in a proportion of 60% for Călin Georgescu and now they are quite determined to vote for a candidate similar to him."
George Simion
"George Simion should, in the coming weeks, disappoint or make major campaign mistakes to miss the second round. And it would also mean, in that case, that Victor Ponta would manage to become a real competitor for this audience, which again seems very complicated at this moment."
"If George Simion makes mistakes and erodes, we could have a final, a less likely scenario, but we could even have a completely unpredictable final in terms of the second competitor. We are in a moment of indecision because we have 'opportunistic' candidates."
Crin Antonescu
"He started on a platform where he was supported by practically a majority of the parliament, made up of PSD, PNL, UDMR, but noticing that such support is not enough, he began to have a somewhat atypical campaign, one that goes against the idea of conveying a message from the political forces that control the legislature, trying to launch themes that belong to the opposition in Romania or belong to a zone rather in conflict with the current political system."
"Crin Antonescu talks about Sorosists, talks about the fact that there are no climate changes, tries to take over certain themes from the far-right area. He does this precisely because that political support from traditional parties does not work or, to a large extent, limits him from reaching certain voters."
"In Romania, anti-system voters are not just those who support Călin Georgescu. There are people dissatisfied with the current political class who have deeply pro-European values and who want a change. A candidate like Crin Antonescu must also reach them. As long as he remains confined to the discourse zone of the ruling parties, he will not be able to improve his electoral performance."
"Therefore, in the messages he conveys, Crin Antonescu does not position himself as an anti-European candidate, but as one who tries to be a new version of pro-European, a kind of anti-system positioning, but at the same time being in power. He says that changes are happening in America and Europe and proposes that we accept these changes, seeking to overcome or blur the skepticism with which the PSD and PNL parties are viewed."
Nicușor Dan
"The Mayor of Bucharest applies the same strategy as in the local elections. He had broad support in the capital. He relied on the fact that many people could not vote for Piedone or for the PSD and PNL candidates. He was quite passive. He smiled at the camera. He presented some achievements and elements from his personal life, behaving as normally as possible."
"Thus, he managed to rank first in the preferences of people who wanted something else, and now for the presidential elections he is trying the same strategy. But it is not enough, and he will be forced to come before the public opinion with some messages and proposals for the future."
"Here, an observation related to data must also be made. If people make a calculation and look at the polls, good or bad, as they are, and add Nicușor Dan's voters to those of Elena Lasconi, they will find that together they exceed 30%. Which means that it is not just USR voters in the discussion. In the parliamentary elections, that formation obtained 13% of the votes."
"It is also about an audience dissatisfied with political leaders but with an attachment to Europe, to Romania's path so far, and who would not go for a candidate like Georgescu or Simion. This is an important aspect because it is about an electoral base that the other candidates cannot really reach."
Victor Ponta
"He plays the role of the PSD candidate in this campaign, a populist PSD. He tries to exploit a fairly extensive electoral area, made up of social-democratic voters or former PSD voters."
"Victor Ponta made an electoral bet by trying to recover a large part of the electorate lost by Marcel Ciolacu."
"He targets some of the PSD voters who are closer to populism and AUR-type voters. He tries to build a large coalition."
"The second round of the presidential elections will be between a candidate who will be a new version of a PSD leader and a new version of a right-wing leader. In fact, it will be a confrontation between the old electoral bases, affected by the social and economic transformations of the last decade."
"Also, in the campaign, there will be a confrontation between Victor Ponta and Crin Antonescu, aiming to obtain support from as many as possible from this more traditionalist and conservative electoral base, but one that has not been won over by the extremist ideas of AUR."
Several opinion polls indicate the possibility, a few days before the official start of the electoral campaign, that in the presidential final George Simion and Victor Ponta may reach. The situation can change depending on the evolution of the candidates and their interaction with the voters.