France has had, in less than two years, five prime ministers, a political achievement that is hard to match. Now, the French Parliament – extremely divided after the president’s decision to call for early elections – is struggling to produce a majority capable of adopting the budget.
To all this was added a general strike on Thursday, called by unions opposing previous budget proposals.
Some French people were irritated to learn that their political chaos is causing laughter... among Italians. Newspapers in Rome and Turin showed a clear "gioia maligna" (malicious joy), reporting recent events.
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- France paralyzed by protests: Over a million people in the streets, violence in several cities (Video) Bank attacked in Paris
The humiliation of former Prime Minister François Bayrou, warnings about the explosion of external debt, and the prospect of the French economy needing IMF assistance - all have been subjects of irony, noted by BBC journalists.
But above all, the loss of shine of President Emmanuel Macron has been noticeable. "Where is his grandeur now?" Il Messaggero asked.
The burden of debt and the risk of the IMF
The debt cost is estimated this year at 67 billion euros - more than the expenses of all ministries, except for Education and Defense.
Forecasts show that by the end of the decade, the amount will reach 100 billion euros annually.
Fitch rating agency downgraded France's rating last Friday, which could make government loans more expensive and reflects increasing doubts about the country's stability and its ability to pay.
The possibility of turning to the IMF or the intervention of the European Central Bank no longer seems like a fantasy.
All this is happening against the backdrop of global upheavals: war in Europe, American withdrawal, rise of populism.
Last Wednesday, a national protest day organized by the "Bloquons Tout" (Let's Block Everything) group took place, embraced by the far-left but with limited impact, except for a few visible street clashes.
A bigger test came yesterday, with large-scale demonstrations organized by unions and left-wing parties against the government's plans.
"At this critical moment, when Europe's sovereignty and freedom are at stake, France finds itself paralyzed by chaos, helplessness, and debt," summarized political analyst Nicolas Baverez, as cited by the BBC.
Macron insists he can get the country out of the impasse, but he has only 18 months left in his second term.
Some believe that France's assets - wealth, infrastructure, institutional resilience - can save it. But there is also the opposite scenario: a permanent weakening, prey to extremists from both the left and the right, "the new sick man of Europe."
Tensions with the Prime Ministers
It all originated in the disastrous dissolution of the National Assembly, decided by Macron in the summer of 2024. Far from consolidating governance, the new Parliament split into three blocs: center, left, and far-right.
No group could form a functional government because the other two immediately joined forces against it.
Michel Barnier and then François Bayrou each lasted only a few months as prime ministers, both succumbing to an essential dilemma: how should the state manage its revenues and expenses.
Bayrou, a 74-year-old centrist, made external debt - now exceeding 3 trillion euros, or 114% of GDP - a central theme. He wanted to stabilize repayments through 44 billion cuts in the 2026 budget.
- France cuts two days off, freezes pensions, and lays off state employees in a drastic austerity plan
He was dismissed after the left and far-right voted together on a motion of no confidence. Additionally, many voters were hostile to his ideas, such as abolishing two public holidays to fund defense.
As an emergency solution, Macron turned to a close associate: Sébastien Lecornu, a discreet 39-year-old Norman who became a confidant in late-night discussions with whiskey at the Élysée.
"I am convinced that an agreement between political forces is possible, respecting each one's convictions," Macron said after his appointment.
"With Lecornu, in practice, Macron is the prime minister. The two are essentially one and the same," commented economist Philippe Aghion, as cited by the BBC.
- Bayrou's government lost the vote of confidence. Macron loses his fourth prime minister in 20 months
Lecornu's Herculean Task
Macron asks Lecornu to change direction: after years of closeness to the right, he now seeks an understanding with the left, specifically with the Socialist Party. According to the law, the prime minister must present a budget by mid-October to be adopted by the end of the year.
The only possible arithmetic: an alliance of centrists with moderate left and right - i.e., PS and The Republicans (LR).
But each concession made to one risks alienating the others.
The Socialists demand a reduction in the debt reduction target, taxing big entrepreneurs, and canceling the 2023 pension reform.
These ideas are unacceptable to The Republicans (LR), who threaten to vote against any budget that includes them. The MEDEF employers' association even announced "mass demonstrations" if the solution involves tax increases.
Moreover, Macron's imminent departure makes it unlikely for anyone to make any concessions. Municipal elections are in March, and presidential elections in May 2027.
On the extremes, the National Rally (RN) and La France Insoumise (LFI) will cry "betrayal" at the slightest sign of compromise.
Thus, Lecornu has a Herculean task: at best, a fragile compromise, with a truncated budget and negative signals for the markets. At worst, failure and another prime minister resignation.
Macron's apocalyptic scenario: a new dissolution, other elections, possibly won by Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National (RN). Or even his own resignation, already demanded by some.
The Conjunction of Multiple Crises
Of course, a less catastrophic note can also be adopted. France has gone through crises and survived. Some even see admirable things.
"The fundamentals of the French economy, including the balance of imports and exports, remain solid. Unemployment is traditionally higher than in the UK, but nothing catastrophic. We have a high level of business creation and better growth than Germany," former LR leader Jean-François Copé argues.
Economist Philippe Aghion also says, "We are not about to become like Greece. And what Bayrou said about debt was an effective wake-up call."
However, others consider these statements too optimistic.
"We cannot rule out the hypothesis of an IMF intervention. It's like a dike that seems solid, everyone sits on it, but the sea digs underneath until one day it collapses suddenly," warns economist Philippe Dessertine.
To which Françoise Fressoz from Le Monde adds, "We have all become dependent on public spending. For half a century, left and right-wing governments have bought social peace in this way. Now, the system has exhausted itself, but no one wants to pay the price of reforms."
What is happening in France is a conjunction of simultaneous crises - political, economic, and social - making the moment so significant.
"It's like an incomprehensible play, performed in front of an empty room," notes sociologist Jérôme Fourquet.
Voters are told that debt is a matter of life and death, but many do not believe or see why they should pay.
Hovering over all is a man who came to power in 2017 with promises of reconciliation between left and right, capital and labor, growth and social justice, eurosceptics and euro-enthusiasts.
Commentator Nicolas Baverez drew a devastating conclusion in Le Figaro: "Emmanuel Macron is the real target of popular defiance and bears full responsibility for this shipwreck. Like all demagogues, he has turned our country into a field of ruins."
G.P.