The United States entered the last six months before the midterm elections, a decisive legislative vote for the future of President Donald Trump’s second term. After two years that deeply transformed the country, the November vote will determine whether the Republicans maintain control of Congress or if the Democrats can block the White House agenda.
„The stakes are very high,” says Mindy Romero, director of the Center for Inclusive Democracy at the University of Southern California, quoted by AFP and featured in Inquirer.net. The midterm elections represent a „crucial moment” for both parties, she adds.
Congress, the key to the last two years of the term
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be at stake in November, along with 33 of the 100 Senate seats. Republicans currently hold fragile majorities in both chambers, and Democrats hope to regain control of the House of Representatives and, eventually, the Senate.
For Trump, maintaining the majority is essential for passing the rest of his legislative agenda. Otherwise, a Congress controlled by Democrats could block appointments, trigger investigations, and seriously complicate the implementation of White House policies.
Trump frequently repeats that Democrats could quickly launch a new impeachment procedure if they take control of Congress.
An increasingly vulnerable president
Midterm elections are traditionally challenging for the party in control of the White House. And with six months to go before the vote, Republicans' prospects are complicated by polls showing high levels of dissatisfaction with Donald Trump.
"The president is quite unpopular, and this is usually a strong indicator of how the presidential party will fare in the midterm elections," explains Julia Azari, a political science professor at Marquette University.
Dissatisfaction has several sources. Many Americans believe that Trump has not improved their economic situation, although this was one of the central promises of his campaign. The war launched against Iran is also unpopular, as is the increase in gasoline prices caused by the conflict.
Trump is also criticized for his harsh policies towards immigrants, while Democrats accuse him, since returning to the White House, of authoritarian tendencies.
Democrats also fail to fully convince
Republicans' issues do not automatically translate into enthusiasm for Democrats. Polls show that Americans are dissatisfied with the country's direction and with both major parties.
"Americans are dissatisfied with the general direction and with both parties," says Julia Azari. However, she adds, "someone has to win" in November, and voters disappointed with Democrats could still vote against Republicans.
For Democrats, the stakes are not just about regaining Congress. They insist that "Donald Trump and Republican leaders represent an existential threat to America," explains Mindy Romero.
The battle for electoral maps
Another major front of the campaign is the battle to redraw electoral districts, known in the US as gerrymandering. Trump has urged several Republican-led states to redraw their electoral maps by 2025 to dilute the Democratic vote and secure additional seats in Congress.
The practice is not new in the United States but has been strongly revived in states like Texas and North Carolina. Democrats have responded by redrawing districts in states they control, including California and Virginia.
The political landscape has been further complicated by a recent decision by the conservative-dominated Supreme Court, which restricts redistricting aimed at favoring minority representation.
Several Republican governors in the South, including Louisiana and Alabama, have already announced plans to redraw districts to eliminate Democratic seats.
"Electoral chaos" ahead of the vote
The impact of all these maneuvers remains difficult to anticipate. Julia Azari warns, however, that they contribute to a worrying "electoral chaos."
Mindy Romero compares the current uncertainty to "a chessboard moving behind a truck on a bumpy country road."
With six months to go before the election, the only certainty is that the November elections can reshape the balance of power in Washington and determine how much political space Donald Trump will have in the second half of his term.
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