The leader of the Social Democrats has left the National Permanent Bureau of PSD with the party’s decision to request the president to appoint him for the formation of the Government.
But this request represents only the first step taken on the obstacle-filled road to the vote in Parliament.
The PSD leader said that the party he leads „will not stand with a hat in hand in front of anyone.”
Many times, to understand what a politician is referring to, his statement must be turned around because, in reality, it echoes the greatest fear or the greatest weakness that plagues the one who utters it.
And Sorin Grindeanu's fear is that he will be forced to stand with a hat in hand. And not just a little.
It must be said from the outset that there is a probability that, in the coming months, Romania will be led by a PSD minority government, and Sorin Grindeanu will obtain the position of prime minister.
Parliamentary support for this government is set to be ensured by PNL and UDMR, specifically, only for the laws that secure European funding through PNRR and SAFE.
After nearly 50 days since the dismissal of the Bolojan Government through a vote of no confidence, the step that should have been taken from the first day has been reached, if Nicușor Dan, the President of Romania, had not diverted the normal course of events, trying to take over PNL and launch a new version, the third, of USL.
The vote of no confidence was generated by the departure of the PSD from the coalition of pro-European parties and was voted on by the Social Democrats, alongside AUR and other parliamentarians from extremist formations.
It was logical for the party that caused the political crisis to have solutions for its resolution.
Grindeanu has a way to become prime minister again
In these 50 days, many things have happened. Ilie Bolojan has emerged as the leader of the Opposition, with support of over 30%, surpassing George Simion and Nicușor Dan.
On the other hand, PSD and the President of Romania were the big losers of the crisis. Their political machinations, completely non-transparent, aimed at taking over PNL, were criticized by a large part of public opinion.
After two prime minister designations that failed to form a parliamentary majority, the President of Romania has exhausted his entire political influence, becoming a prisoner of the interaction between PSD, PNL, USR, and UDMR.
The collapse of the Veștea Government in Parliament resulted in entering the salvation procedure proposed by Ilie Bolojan at the extraordinary congress of PNL, held on Sunday, namely a moratorium between PSD, PNL, USR, and UDMR for a period of six months, during which none of the four formations will submit a vote of no confidence, followed by negotiations regarding the formation of a minority government, either by PSD or by PNL, USR, and UDMR.
Most likely, the discussions among the four will tilt the balance in favor of PSD, the party with the weakest and most vulnerable leader. There is great pressure within the Social Democrats from "barons" like Lia Olguța Vasilescu, Paul Stănescu, and others, to take over the governance.
PSD's plan
PNL, USR, and UDMR now represent the true pro-European force in the Romanian Parliament. Together, they have around 160 votes in the legislature, well above PSD (129) or AUR (90).
In addition, the three formations have an important asset: together they have around 40% public support, according to several sociological studies, which gives them the perspective of forming a new parliamentary majority in the case of early or regular elections in 2028.
PSD is caught between AUR and the new alliance, and after 2028, it will most likely become the fourth political formation at the national level, after AUR, PNL, and USR.
In these conditions, entering the government at any cost represents the only possibility to stop the exodus of mayors to AUR, providing a narrow window of opportunity for the party's revival through a series of decisions with social impact.
Romania's modernization cannot be postponed for another generation. Romania needs a serious government that continues reforms and delivers for the people. We are determined to take on a minority government in the PNL - USR - UDMR formula.
Dominic Fritz, President of USR, Facebook post
If PSD comes to power, Sorin Grindeanu will by no means have a free hand, as he boasts. All the moves of the party will be censored both by AUR, which also targets what remains of the PSD electorate, and by the pro-European alliance.
Furthermore, it will be the turn of the Social Democrats to become targets of social discontent, as government actions will still be needed to reduce budgetary expenses and inflation.
It would not be surprising that once Sorin Grindeanu becomes prime minister, the traditional war between the Victoria Palace and Cotroceni will begin. Nicușor Dan may try to rebuild his connection with the electorate, putting pressure on the PSD leader to continue the reforms in public administration.
Saving the relationship with AUR
On the other hand, PSD leaders are also making their own calculations. Sorin Grindeanu is counting on the fact that, once at the helm of the Government, he will have the opportunity to spread populist messages in society and use public resources to buy support.
Moreover, the leader of the Social Democrats hopes that, from the position of prime minister, he will be able to develop the relationship with AUR, offering lucrative positions in public institutions and companies, so that PSD can withstand in governance for as long as possible, possibly until 2028, with the support of the party led by George Simion.
If such an understanding is achieved, PSD could checkmate Nicușor Dan, as the two formations have enough votes to initiate the president's suspension procedure.
Generally, these plans, devised in the parties' strategy centers, have varying degrees of success, as each political actor enters the arena with their own program, and reality will be the result of their clash.
Additionally, domestic politics are heavily influenced by international events, and the war in Ukraine will continue to shape everything that happens in Romania, even if this impact is discussed less.
The lightning rod from Cotroceni
Although early elections are unlikely, this topic will be present in debates and discussions between parties, as well as the suspension of the president, with Nicușor Dan being in a situation of maximum vulnerability.
Paradoxically, this political fragility could ultimately save him from suspension.
Becoming a politically insignificant actor, it is very likely that no formation will be interested in his suspension, as long as such a procedure does not come with significant political gains.
However, a major event, an internal or external crisis affecting Romania, could lead to the suspension of the head of state, in order to channel popular anger and find a scapegoat.