The parliamentary elections in the small eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt could have dramatic consequences for the federal government of Germany, further amplifying dissatisfaction towards Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
Only 1.6 million voters are called to the polls on Sunday to elect a new regional parliament in Saxony-Anhalt. Situated in eastern Germany, between the Elbe River and the Harz Mountains, the state has a smaller population than 10 of the country’s 16 federal states, writes Deutsche Welle.
However, the election represents a significant challenge for the governing coalition in Berlin, consisting of the conservative CDU/CSU Union — Christian Democrats and their sister party in Bavaria, the Christian Social Union — and the Social Democrats from the SPD.
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In recent months, rumors have circulated in Berlin that German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, a CDU member, could resign after this election or could be forced to do so by his own party.
The reason is that the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, considered partly far-right, is leading in the polls in Saxony-Anhalt, far ahead of the centrist parties governing at the federal level, CDU and SPD. Not even an absolute majority for the right-wing populists can be ruled out. If this were to happen, the elections would have serious consequences for the federal government in Berlin.
A threat to Chancellor Friedrich Merz?
Political scientist Carsten Koschmieder from the Free University of Berlin does not believe that Merz will resign.
"I don't get the impression that he is a person who would resign," Koschmieder told DW. "On the contrary, he is very happy to be chancellor and has worked hard to reach this position." Additionally, there is currently no successor prepared for Merz within the CDU and CSU, he added.
An absolute majority for AfD, however, could throw the federal government coalition in Berlin into crisis, says Koschmieder. It would also intensify pressures regarding the correct approach to AfD, a party considered partly far-right.
Before being elected chancellor in May 2025, Merz set a goal to halve support for AfD, including by adopting strict migration policies. The fact that this goal was not achieved and that instead, CDU lost support, has brought him numerous criticisms within his own party. The Union formed by CDU and CSU has categorically ruled out any cooperation with AfD, as have all other established German political parties.
Could a CDU government receive support from the Die Linke party?
It is also possible for CDU in Saxony-Anhalt to end up forming a minority government together with SPD and the Greens, the ecological party. However, even such a three-party coalition is unlikely to have a majority in parliament.
This would mean that the government would, ironically, have to be tolerated by the socialist Die Linke (The Left) party. It is ironic because CDU, in turn, wants to avoid any cooperation with Die Linke, as reiterated by the chancellor in an interview with the regional newspaper Mitteldeutsche Zeitung: "Both AfD and Die Linke have fundamental differences from the Union, so cooperation is excluded," Merz stated on Tuesday.
According to Koschmieder, here lies a double problem for Merz: many local CDU politicians, especially in eastern Germany, believe that cooperation with AfD is possible and have categorically rejected cooperation with Die Linke.
However, many other conservative politicians fear the opposite: approaching the far-right populists would seriously affect CDU/CSU. "There are many conservative democrats in CDU who say: We have nothing to do with AfD. They want to destroy our democracy; they support the President of Russia, Putin, and oppose Western integration and European unity," explained Koschmieder.
Merz: government stability is not at risk
In other words, primarily for the chancellor's party, the outcome of the elections in Saxony-Anhalt could become a crucial test. Merz has already identified this issue and has recently called for calm.
"Attempts are being made from the outside to create a rift within the Union. The outcome of a state parliament election does not endanger the stability of the federal government," he stated to Mitteldeutsche Zeitung.
The chancellor seems determined to continue his governance, even amidst growing dissatisfaction and increasing pressures. This year, he still intends to push through his controversial pension age limit reforms in parliament, criticized harshly even by members of his own party during the election campaign in Saxony-Anhalt.
However, this has not discouraged Merz. "The pension system is no longer sustainable due to demographic developments, and we have known this for years," he stated.
A regional AfD government is considered a security risk
Pressures on the chancellor are not limited to domestic policy and economic reforms.
Security and internal policy experts, both at the federal and regional levels, have warned about the risks that could come with the formation of an AfD-led government in Saxony-Anhalt.
One of the main concerns is the access such a government would have to sensitive information and data, including in counterintelligence.
Georg Maier, the Social Democratic Interior Minister of the eastern state of Thuringia, stated to the German publication RND: "If an AfD politician were to become the Interior Minister of Saxony-Anhalt, this would, in my opinion, represent a major security risk for Germany."
SPD hopes for a good result in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania
But what about the Social Democrats? A result of 8% or 9% of the votes in Saxony-Anhalt, as recently estimated by polling institutes, seems very low, but it would represent a considerable improvement compared to what was anticipated six months ago.
Moreover, the Social Democratic Prime Minister of the state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Manuela Schwesig, has good chances of securing a new mandate in the regional parliament in the elections on September 20. SPD has made a strong comeback in polls in this coastal state since last year; with around 30% of the votes, the Social Democrats could form a government together with Die Linke, CDU, or possibly both parties.
Yet, even here, in northeastern Germany, AfD is the leading party in polls, with approximately 35% of the vote intentions.