Donald Trump has been the dominant political figure of this century. He achieved one of the most improbable electoral victories in United States history, followed by the most spectacular political comeback.
He changed America’s relationship with the rest of the world, rewrote the rules and expectations related to the presidential office, deepened societal divisions, and altered the way Americans relate to the presidency. Trump is omnipresent, and his power largely rests precisely on this constant presence.
Now, however, Trump has been forced to confront his own political decline, comments The Atlantic. He asked voters to turn the midterm elections into a referendum on him and to vote as if his name were on the ballot. Americans followed his call but rejected him. The result represents a strong and widespread electoral sanction.
The Democrats are on track to gain control of the House of Representatives and also secure a majority in the Senate. The results reflect the deep dissatisfaction of Americans with the direction the president has taken the country over the past two years.
Trump will most likely have to face a Congress where Democrats can block his agenda and use the power to request documents and subpoena officials for hearings. Additionally, he must accept the possibility that the Republican Party, which he reshaped in his own image, may begin to look beyond him. Donald Trump has effectively become a lame-duck president with diminishing political influence.
Still, we have not yet heard the last word from Trump. He remains the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, plays a major role in international politics, holds the extensive powers of the presidency, and continues to attract public attention. He has managed to bounce back from difficult political situations before and emerge stronger.
Nevertheless, not even his influence can stop the passage of time. The next national elections will be those to designate his successor in 2028. Soon, Trump may gradually lose visibility as public attention shifts toward the presidential campaign.
He will also have to consider the possibility that a Democratic president might enter the White House, who could use the Department of Justice to investigate the last four years, including the activities of his associates, friends, family, and companies. One of Trump's greatest fears could become reality: political irrelevance.
The Beginning of the End
However, Trump will not accept defeat without a fight. We do not know whether he and the Republicans will acknowledge the election results, although he said he would accept them, and his track record of exceeding expectations makes any prediction difficult. The current electoral losses will not cause him to change his attitude. However, they mark the beginning of the end.
Trump's electoral campaign ended in a manner as absurd as it was predictable. For months, the president was accused of losing touch with Americans' problems and no longer understanding what concerns his own supporters. He mocked worries about the cost of living while his wealth increased, started a war Americans did not want, renovated the White House, and planned several monumental projects in his honor.
And a day before the elections, Trump considered that the best way to respond to accusations that he was more concerned with personal projects and controversial deals was to deliver the final campaign speech in front of his most ridiculous failed renovation project.
To the dismay of Republicans, Trump appeared before the Reflecting Pool, the reflecting basin near the Lincoln Memorial, and defended a project compromised by algae growth and poor-quality work by a contractor selected without a tender. The president had falsely claimed that the works were affected by acts of vandalism. The project exceeded the budget by millions of dollars and certainly did not earn him votes in states like Michigan, Kansas, or Alaska.
A Delayed Campaign
Trump entered the electoral campaign late and had to be persuaded to hold rallies in the final month. Once he agreed, he insisted that the elections be about him and his achievements, without acknowledging mistakes or showing empathy for people facing hardships.
He demanded that his image appear in numerous campaign ads and insisted on organizing a political convention dedicated to the midterm elections, a first in American politics. However, few of the attendees at the event held in Dallas seemed enthusiastic about being there.
Trump then became heavily involved in the campaign, holding rallies lasting nearly two hours, night after night, in various parts of the country. However, these events lacked the scale that had defined American politics over the past decade.
The rallies were smaller than usual, with only a few held outdoors, partly for security reasons. An event in Ohio, organized in the last two weeks of the campaign, took place in a small gymnasium, while other meetings were marked by numerous empty seats.
More important was the choice of states where Trump went to support his candidates. Almost half of the rallies took place in deeply Republican states, which he had easily won in the past and where he usually did not need to campaign intensively.
There he found larger and more enthusiastic crowds. Voters in towns like Corinth, Mississippi, were more excited to see him for the first time than those in Grand Rapids, Michigan, where the president had already held over six rallies over the years.
But this strategy also sent another message: Trump had to go to Republican strongholds like South Carolina and Montana because places once considered safe for Republicans had now become a concern, and his supporters needed to be mobilized. Once there, the question was what he actually had to offer voters.
Americans' Dissatisfactions
According to polls, Americans are dissatisfied with many of Trump's broken promises. These include commitments to lower prices, not to start new wars, to release the Epstein files, and to deport only the "worst of the worst."
Traditionally, the party of the sitting president performs poorly in midterm elections. In Trump's case, the situation is worsened by the fact that he has lost support even in areas that were strengths for him, such as the economy and immigration.
The president has distanced several incumbent Republican senators whom he considered disloyal and supported controversial candidates, which made several races open to any outcome.
At the same time, he gave Republican candidates few electoral arguments, as voters reacted harshly to an economy they believe benefits only the wealthy, a category that includes members of the president's family and his Cabinet.
Instead of presenting solutions to economic problems, Trump tried to bring back to the forefront themes from old electoral campaigns, such as fears related to transgender gender reassignment surgeries, Muslim terrorists, and even communism.
The president appeared disconnected from voters' reality and, in many cases, even from his own party. Despite warnings about the risks of artificial intelligence, including the possibility that it could eliminate numerous jobs, Trump supported the development of the technology and the construction of data centers, even as public opinion became increasingly critical of them. The reason was reportedly the support of tech companies for the stock market.
Trump Distances Himself from Responsibility for Defeat
As the results began to be announced, Trump tried to distance himself from responsibility for the defeat.
In a social media post, he contradicted the central message of his own campaign: "I was not on the ballot, and if I had been, we would have won BY A HUGE MARGIN!"
Trump now finds himself in a new political situation, one he will not like at all.
In the first midterm elections during his presidency, in 2018, the Democrats gained control of the House of Representatives, but Republicans won victories in the Senate, offsetting the losses.
This vote represents an important moment on Trump's path to political irrelevance. Many who know him closely believe his main motivation, even more important than power or money, is public attention.
For a decade, Trump has dominated American public debate in a way no other president has managed in recent generations. However, this situation could begin to change as Washington turns its attention to the period after his departure.
After dominating the political scene, Trump could quickly move into a secondary role. He will not disappear completely: he will try to influence the selection of Republican candidates and will continue to enjoy the loyalty of his most fervent supporters, even if their numbers may decline.
He will also remain the supreme commander of the army, and presidents at the end of their term retain extensive powers in the field of foreign policy. A return to conflict with Iran? An action against Cuba? Resuming plans regarding Greenland? Given that Trump is concerned about the legacy he will leave and desperate to stay in the spotlight, any scenario seems possible.
Moreover, the president could begin to lose the unconditional loyalty of the Republican Party. The categorical defeat in the midterm elections suggests that his instincts and political influence are in decline, and Republicans might become more willing to oppose him.
As new candidates emerge for the presidential elections, Republicans will begin to shape their future beyond MAGA and decide what role Donald Trump will continue to have in the party.