When Russia hit Ukraine with a medium-range hypersonic missile in response to Kiev’s attacks with Western missiles, Putin once again showed that he is not afraid to raise the stakes. What will the Kremlin leader do next?
If any words were needed after showing that he does not hesitate to take action, Vladimir Putin directly threatened America, the UK, and any other country supplying Ukraine with missiles for long-range strikes on Russian territory.
„We consider ourselves entitled to use our weapons against the military facilities of those countries that allow their weapons to be used against our facilities,” said the Russian president in a message to the nation on Thursday evening.
In these circumstances, the world wonders what Vladimir Putin will do next. Steve Rosenberg, a BBC editor specializing in Russia, admits that he does not know. And probably neither does Putin, which makes the situation even more serious.
Putin is like a car with the accelerator stuck to the floor
The Kremlin accused the West this week for escalating the war in Ukraine. However, nearly three years of war in Ukraine have shown that Vladimir Putin is the one who adopts escalation as a means to achieve objectives – in this case, control over Ukraine or at least peace on Moscow’s terms.
The large-scale invasion of Ukraine, Putin’s decision to declare four Ukrainian territories part of Russia, the deployment of North Korean troops in the Kursk region, his Thursday decision to hit the Ukrainian city of Dnipro with a new intermediate-range hypersonic ballistic missile, followed by threats to strike the West – all these represent moments of conflict escalation.
Rosenberg once compared Putin to a car without reverse gear and brakes speeding down the highway with the accelerator pedal stuck to the floor. Since then, the Russian leader has not backed down.
„Don’t expect the Putinmobile to slow down or suddenly retreat now, in the face of long-range missile attacks on Russia,” he writes. In his opinion, there is a possibility of escalation of the war.
In June, Putin suggested that Moscow could arm the West’s adversaries if Ukraine were allowed to strike deep into Russia with Western long-range missiles. „If someone believes it is possible to supply such weapons in a war zone to hit our territory and create problems for us, why can’t we supply our weapons of the same class to those regions of the world where they will target important facilities of the countries doing this to Russia?” he said.
The big question: will Putin press the red button?
The question „What will Putin do next?” is usually followed by: „Would Putin use a nuclear weapon in the war in Ukraine?” writes Rosenberg.
The Russian president has given some not-so-subtle hints.
When he announced the start of the „special military operation” – the large-scale invasion of Ukraine – he issued a warning to „those who might be tempted to intervene from the outside.”
„Anyone who tries to stand in our way or create threats to our country and our people must know that Russia will respond immediately. And the consequences will be like nothing you have ever seen in all your history,” the Kremlin leader conveyed.
Western leaders have generally rejected these statements. Since the beginning of the war, Western governments have crossed several „red lines” imposed by Russia, offering tanks, advanced missile systems, and then F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine.
However, the „consequences” evoked by Putin have not materialized.
His message to the nation on Thursday contained no explicit reference to a nuclear attack. His message to the Western allies of Ukraine seemed to be: „This is a red line we are serious about, I challenge you to cross it.”
„Even Putin doesn’t know if he can use a nuclear weapon or not. It depends on his emotions. We know he is a very emotional man. The decision to start this war was also an emotional step,” the editorial writer of Novaia Gazeta, Andrei Kolesnikov, recently told a British journalist.
„For this reason, we must take seriously his idea of changing the nuclear doctrine. They (the Russians) say that the fear of war must return and will engulf both sides, but this is also an escalation tool. In this interpretation, we must admit that Putin, under certain circumstances, can use at least a tactical nuclear weapon in a limited nuclear war. It won’t solve the problem. But it will be the beginning of a suicidal escalation for the whole world,” Kolesnikov added.
The Trump factor and the Kremlin’s calculations
Perhaps Vladimir Putin acts on emotions. He is clearly driven by Western resentments and seems determined not to back down. But he also knows that the world could soon be a very different place.
In two months, Joe Biden will leave the White House, and Donald Trump will take his place. The president-elect has expressed skepticism about US military assistance to Ukraine and has vehemently criticized NATO. Trump has also recently said that it would be „smart” to talk to Vladimir Putin.
All of this should sound good to the Russian leader. This means that, despite the latest threats and warnings, the Kremlin may decide not to escalate majorly right now.
That is if the Kremlin has calculated that Donald Trump will help end the war on terms beneficial to Russia. If the calculations change, Moscow’s response could change as well.
T.D.