President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, will deliver on Wednesday, in the European Parliament, her first speech about the state of the Union in her second term.
If normally the event would mark a quiet start to the European political year, this time the atmosphere is explosive: the head of the European executive faces fierce criticism from all directions – from accusations regarding trade agreements with the US and Mercosur, to reproaches related to the lack of reaction to the conflict in Gaza.
POLITICO notes that the speech, instead of being a simple presentation of priorities, risks turning into a political rescue operation.
The Speech, at 10:00
Ursula von der Leyen is preparing to face, starting at 9:00 local time (10:00 Romania time), a furious and undisciplined European Parliament, which wants to express its long list of grievances, besides listening to her plans for the future.
Nine months ago, the President of the European Commission delivered the inaugural speech of her second term, while the European Union was changing its course, facing new realities.
A few months ago, a couple of former Italian prime ministers - Enrico Letta and Mario Draghi - published two reports on the EU's single market and competitiveness. Both highlighted the need for a dramatic policy change to revive the European economy. And, of course, US President Donald Trump had just been elected, adding a sense of urgency to efforts to support the European economy.
As the President of the European Commission delivers her first speech on the state of the European Union in her second term on Wednesday, critics will accuse her of weakening Europe by selling it to Donald Trump through an unbalanced trade agreement, abandoning farmers by approving a deal with South America, dismantling climate change policies, and remaining silent on Gaza - to name just a few of the accumulating grievances.
The speech, according to POLITICO, is less of a new beginning for the new political year and more of a rescue operation.
All Guns on von der Leyen
Just 10 months into her second term in office, von der Leyen is under strong pressure - from the democratically elected Parliament, within the broader EU structure, and from global events.
Political groups that have been friendly with center-right presidents of the European Commission for decades are now questioning these alliances. Rising right-wing forces demand tougher policies on issues like migration and the environment, viewing the EU as a convenient punching bag.
The leaders of the US and Russia have disrupted many things that once seemed certain about Europe's place in the world.
"It has been a bad summer for Europe," said Bas Eickhout, co-chair of the Greens in the European Parliament, a political group different from von der Leyen's but which voted her into office. "What we clearly want as a message from the President of the Commission is that things need to change," the Green politician said.
"We expect clear leadership from the executive," said Valérie Hayer, head of the liberal Renew Europe group, for POLITICO. "Europe cannot afford institutional stagnation or deadlock," she emphasized.
This apparent lack of leadership has dismayed politicians of all stripes, which is why they are ready to pounce on von der Leyen personally. Within the Commission and the Parliament, wounds are still fresh from the no-confidence motion against von der Leyen in July.
High Tension and Political Polarization
Although the State of the Union speech is often seen in Brussels as a rather banal start to the political season - full of hyperbole and ceremonies and lacking concrete plans, where the Commission President boasts about achievements in the last 12 months and makes grand promises for the future - this year there is an underlying current that will add extra tension.
"I don't think the Commission is scared," said a well-positioned Commission official who spoke on condition of anonymity. "But there is certainly an awareness of the political tensions in Parliament and the dissatisfaction of political groups, including within von der Leyen's majority, with some of the Commission's actions and policies," the official said.
What is normally a "routine" exercise of negotiations between Parliament and the Commission to reach an agreement on political plans for the year ahead is likely to be affected by high tensions and political polarization, believes Richard Corbett, former Member of the European Parliament and advisor to the President of the European Council. Von der Leyen must ensure that she "will calm these differing views in Parliament," he stressed.
The issue is that she doesn't have too many victories to boast about, apart from a 150 billion euro fund to boost defense, and the Parliament has taken legal action against this initiative after the Commission sidelined legislators to implement it.
Von der Leyen can also push for laws to reduce bureaucracy to help struggling industries, but these are contested by a large part of the deputies from socialist, green, and liberal groups.
Despite numerous initiatives to improve Europe's competitiveness, triggered by a historic report from former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi a year ago, Parliament criticizes the lack of progress.
Only von der Leyen's own group, the center-right European People's Party, is ready to defend her at all costs. But even within her own group, French, Polish, and Irish legislators have criticized the Commission as "non-transparent" for rushing to finalize the Mercosur free trade agreement with five Latin American countries. The Commission concluded the pact amid a trade rift with the US, but its critics argue it undermines European farmers.
A "Farce"
For many Members of the European Parliament, the vote of no confidence organized against von der Leyen a month and a half ago opened Pandora's box. With only 76 signatures needed to force another vote, observers say this could become a common practice rather than an extraordinary threat.
The Left group announced last week that they are still looking for 26 more signatures to launch a new vote as early as October, condemning von der Leyen for her silence on the Gaza conflict and the trade deal with the US.
"And this year, the SOTEU (State of the Union) will be nothing more than a farce meant to polish the Commission's image, while von der Leyen worsens the state of the European Union year after year," said Manon Aubry, co-chair of the Left group, to POLITICO.
The far-right Patriots group is also preparing its own no-confidence motion regarding the Mercosur agreement, said Marine Le Pen, one of the prominent members of the group.
"These types of motions, in the context of the ongoing Russian offensive, only weaken the EU and undermine Europe's investments in our common security and defense," commented Andrzej Halicki, head of the Civic Coalition in Poland (in power in Warsaw) within the EPP - von der Leyen's political family.
Socialists and liberals, who - in many cases reluctantly - supported von der Leyen in July, now expect her to reward their loyalty with clear commitments to the centrist majority, after accusing the Commission of allying with far-right groups in an attempt to block a law against greenwashing.
Socialists, liberals, and Greens - who have in the past cooperated with the center-right EPP to pursue a moderate agenda - have as much to lose from EU instability as von der Leyen's group and are not eager to initiate new motions.