The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has concluded its consultation mission in Romania with more reserved forecasts than in the spring. The institution’s experts have revised downward the economic growth estimates, both for this year and for 2026.
Thus, Romania’s GDP is expected to advance by only 1% in 2025, instead of the previously anticipated 1.6%, and for 2026, the forecast has been halved – from 2.8% to 1.4%.
Causes of the revision
The head of the IMF mission for Romania, Joong Shik Kang, explained the reasons for this cut. "We have revised downward the economic growth forecast for 2025 from 1.6% to 1% and from 2.8% to 1.4% next year. The new revision is due to several factors: global developments over the past six months, the new fiscal package adopted in the summer by the Government, and the actual growth in the first two quarters," said Kang, quoted by TVR Info.
He also highlighted short-term risks. "Despite recent developments, the most important risk is whether the Government can deliver and implement the fiscal package announced for this year and next year. If the consolidation plan is implemented, there is a possibility for investors to return and attract more international investments," added the head of the IMF mission.
Warnings and recommendations
The official pointed out that even after the full implementation of the fiscal plan in 2025-2026, further adjustments will be needed in 2027.
"We recommend measures on the revenue side and on the expenditure side. Mobilizing revenues, fairness and balance of the system, encouraging facilities and investments are essential elements for an effective package," emphasized Joong Shik Kang, quoted by Agerpres.
Regarding monetary policy, he stated that the BNR is acting correctly in relation to inflation. "We encourage decisions to maintain the monetary policy rate and to resume rate cuts only when there is a clear decrease in inflation," Kang said.
Asked about the possibility of a financing agreement with Romania, Kang specified that there are no discussions in this regard.
European funds and investments
The IMF emphasized that accessing and efficiently using European funds will be decisive for achieving growth objectives. At the same time, it recommended prioritizing and phasing investment projects, especially those funded through the PNRR.
Experts noted "progress towards a more prudent expenditure planning" and recommended maintaining balance in the long term.
Support for the Government
Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan met with the IMF delegation at the Victoria Palace. The Fund's representatives expressed support for the measures adopted and planned by the Government, considered "essential for reducing the budget deficit and increasing investor confidence."
"Efforts to stabilize public finances and commitment to continue structural reforms were especially appreciated," the Executive's statement said.
The Prime Minister assured that the Government will continue its current direction. "We will continue reforms and fiscal consolidation measures to maintain the stability of public finances, so that budget resources are directed towards investments and modernizing the economy, supporting stable economic growth and long-term development," stated Bolojan.
IMF Mission in Romania
The IMF delegation led by Joong Shik Kang was in Bucharest between September 3 and 12, 2025, as part of the mandatory consultations under Article IV of the IMF, a mandatory surveillance exercise for all member states. The team held discussions with officials from the Ministry of Finance, BNR, other government agencies, as well as representatives from the private sector and non-governmental organizations.
Romania currently does not have a financing agreement with the IMF, but the institution evaluates the national economy annually.