Russia seems to be preparing to test its new nuclear-powered cruise missile, say two American researchers and a source from a Western security service, just as Russian President Vladimir Putin prepares for talks on Ukraine with American President Donald Trump on Friday.
Jeffrey Lewis from the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in California and Decker Eveleth from the CNA analysis organization in Virginia separately arrived at this assessment after studying images taken in recent weeks until Tuesday by the commercial satellite company Planet Labs, as reported by Reuters.
Both agreed that the photos show intense activity at the Pankovo test site in the Novaya Zemlya archipelago in the Barents Sea, including an increase in personnel and equipment, as well as the presence of ships and aircraft associated with previous tests of the 9M730 Burevestnik missile.
"We can see all the activity at the site, which includes large quantities of supplies brought in to support operations and movement in the missile launch area," Lewis said.
A Western security source, who requested not to be identified, confirmed that Russia is preparing for a Burevestnik test.
Invincible Weapon with Unpredictable Trajectory
Lewis stated that the test could take place this week, with the risk of overshadowing the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska.
When asked about this issue, the White House did not comment on the possibility of the test. The Pentagon, CIA, and the Russian Ministry of Defense declined to make statements.
Putin has claimed that the weapon - known by NATO as SSC-X-9 Skyfall - is "invincible" against current and future anti-missile defense systems, with an almost unlimited range and an unpredictable trajectory.
Lewis, Eveleth, and two other arms control experts have said that the development of this missile has become more important for Moscow after Trump announced in January the development of the American anti-missile shield "Golden Dome."
However, many experts argue that it is not clear whether the missile can evade anti-missile defense, provide Moscow with new capabilities, or not spread radiation along its path.
According to researchers, a test had been scheduled long before last week's announcement regarding the Trump-Putin meeting, but Putin could have halted preparations, knowing that they are visible through American spy satellites, to signal openness to ending the war in Ukraine and resuming arms control discussions.
"Sometimes you can speed up or delay the program for political reasons," said Tom Countryman, former Acting Under Secretary of State for Arms Control.
According to the Nuclear Threat Initiative organization, Burevestnik has a poor testing record, with only two partial successes out of 13 known tests.
Special Aircraft and Intense Activity
Eveleth and Lewis stated that the Planet Labs images show stacks of containers, equipment, and personnel arriving in the area since the end of July.
Lewis mentioned that two data collection-equipped aircraft have been at the Rogachevo military airbase in the archipelago since mid-July. The photos he presented show two large planes equipped with circular radar domes.
Moreover, the presence of at least five ships involved in previous tests was noted. A ship tracking site, VesselFinder.com, shows that a sixth ship, the cargo vessel "Teriberka," was set to arrive at Novaya Zemlya on Tuesday. Reuters confirmed the site indicating this destination but could not independently verify the researchers' other observations.
Eveleth and Lewis began analyzing the Pankovo images from July after Russia issued a warning on August 6 for navigators to avoid the area between August 9 and 12. Reuters identified several notifications issued by Russia on the US Federal Aviation Administration's Defense Internet NOTAM Service platform, indicating a possible launch window between August 9 and 22.
The Norwegian military told Reuters that the Barents Sea is "a primary location for Russia's missile tests" and that they have indications, from maritime and aeronautical warnings, of "preparations for testing activities," without confirming the type of munitions involved.
At the end of July, Eveleth observed that a shelter protecting the Burevestnik launcher from the weather was being moved back and forth - a "very clear" indication of testing plans.
The images from August 7 show the protective roof of the launcher, stacks of containers, a crane for handling them, and a helicopter. "They are moving forward forcefully," Lewis concluded.
G.P.