The first 72 hours of 2026 seem to be the prelude to a memorable year. The President of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, was removed from power following a mission that seemed to be taken out of a movie, putting an end to a regime marked by corruption and cocaine trafficking in less than 30 minutes.
Considering that Maduro is now imprisoned in the USA and unlikely to be released soon, Russian President Vladimir Putin faces a geopolitical dilemma that forces him to think about what he truly desires from Venezuela and Latin America, writes analyst Emanuel Pietrobon, specialized in Latin America and the post-Soviet space, in The Moscow Times.
Even though Donald Trump and his closest associates have tried to explain Operation "Absolute Resolve" as a necessary conclusion to a dispute over resource exploitation and drug trafficking that diplomacy could not resolve, the truth lies elsewhere.
Trump removed Maduro due to his close ties with Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran, whose influence Washington aims to eliminate in the Western hemisphere protected by the Monroe Doctrine.
Trump did not endorse Absolute Resolve due to the alleged involvement of Maduro in illegal fentanyl trafficking, essentially a Sino-Mexican business, nor did he script a fate for him in the style of Manuel Noriega to confiscate the country's black gold. Greater influence in the oil industry is just a bonus.
- Operation "Absolute Resolve": How the USA's attack in Venezuela was planned and executed
- The story of the 2 hours and 28 minutes when Maduro was captured from his bed
Putin may be tempted to offer Trump a complete exit from America in exchange for the division of Ukraine. However, the long-term benefits of such a pact are shrouded in uncertainty.
Russia's Interests
Since Hugo Chávez took power in 1999, Russia has sold arms and military equipment worth over $20 billion to Venezuela. Moscow has been allowed to maintain an undeclared espionage network in the country and has been invited several times to build or manage a naval base in the southern Caribbean.
Furthermore, Russian corporations have benefited more than anyone else from the privileges granted by Venezuelan leaders, such as the $600 million joint oil exploitation partnership PDVSA-Roszarubezhneft, which Maduro extended for another 15 years just weeks before his fall.
From Russia's perspective, so many diverse interests are at stake that doing nothing to maintain this special relationship would mean losing everything. It's not a game of chance - it's chess. It's not about saving Maduro from his already written fate, but about understanding what needs to be done next with Venezuela, considering that mishandling this delicate issue is very likely to have serious repercussions for Cuba and Nicaragua.
Chavist Venezuela has provided both countries with everything they need, from food to oil, since the early 2000s. If Venezuela were to undergo a complete regime change or sever ties with Cuba and Nicaragua, the revolutionary governments of both countries could simply implode. Three birds with one stone.
In a domino effect, Washington could restore regional hegemony in the Western Hemisphere. Meanwhile, Russia, China, and Iran would lose their outposts - and with them, one of the biggest sources of influence over the United States.
Did Russia Anticipate Absolute Resolve?
Considering the interests at stake, it is unlikely that Russia would adopt a wait-and-see approach that would jeopardize its carefully built sphere of influence in the two Americas, causing a setback that could take a decade to reverse. Therefore, it's not political science fiction to imagine that Russia anticipated Absolute Resolve and allowed it to happen, quietly working behind the scenes on a post-Maduro scenario.
Vladimir Putin knew he couldn't prevent the unfolding of Absolute Resolve. The immense effort required for the grueling war in Ukraine does not allow for the reallocation of resources to second or third-tier theaters of operations, as clearly demonstrated by Syria.
And even if Russia had the opportunity to stop it, it remains to be seen if it would have chosen to do so. Contrary to popular opinion, Putin neither liked nor respected Maduro, whom he perceived as a grotesque, kitschy, and insecure partner - the exact opposite of his predecessor, Chávez.
While Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who intervened to defend Turkey's Venezuelan interests that a complete regime change would endanger, Putin did not intervene to mediate or save Maduro, as he considered him more of a burden than an asset.
Plan B?
Perhaps Russia's absence in the months leading up to Maduro's fall had less to do with the war in Ukraine or Trump's dream of resolving the competition between the major powers Russia-China-USA and more to do with the existence of a Plan B.
Indeed, in the years following the civil unrest led by Juan Guaidó - which Maduro managed to suppress with the help of Russian advisors and counterinsurgency mercenaries - the Kremlin deepened its ties with the Venezuelan Ministry of Defense, recognizing it as the real holder of power in the country.
No other institution matters. The military was the first to boycott Chávez in the 1990s, only to allow him to come to power after the 2002 revolts. The military could have ousted Maduro during Guaidó's brief moment, ultimately choosing not to intervene.
And the military would have handed Maduro over to Trump, allowing the execution of the "Absolute Resolve" plan and freeing the government from a presence that had become increasingly uncomfortable.
The Game Is Far from Over
With Maduro's removal, Putin lost a friend, but he still maintains a critical influence over Venezuela. The Russian leader will now use this influence to convince the Venezuelan army to reject a US-supervised democratic transition.
Most likely, the Venezuelan armed forces will adopt a more pragmatic and cautious approach towards the world's major powers, favoring balance over alignment. It remains to be seen if Trump would accept such an outcome, given his clear stance that the two Americas are off-limits to adversaries.
The Western Hemisphere has become a central battleground in the competition between major powers. Russia struggles to reconcile immediate needs - ending the war in Ukraine - with long-term calculations, maintaining strategic outposts in distant regions.
However, Trump's intense focus on the Americas risks pushing Russia completely out of the Western hemisphere. Putin's late mentor, Yevgeny Primakov - the architect of the multipolar transition concept - would not be pleased to see his pupil allowing such an outcome.
For this reason, although the future of Venezuela remains uncertain, one thing is as certain as the sunrise: the game is far from over.