Beijing has built a prototype nuclear reactor for a large warship, the clearest sign yet that it is moving towards the realization of the country’s first nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, according to a recent analysis of satellite images and Chinese government documents obtained by The Associated Press.
Analysts at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in California made the discovery while monitoring a site in a mountainous area near the city of Leshan, in the southwestern Chinese province of Sichuan, where they suspected a reactor was being built for the production of plutonium or tritium for military purposes.
Instead, experts concluded that a prototype reactor for a large warship was being built there. The project in Leshan is known as Project Longwei or Dragon Might but has also been referred to in documents as the Nuclear Energy Development Project, CNN reports.
Relying on satellite images and public documents, including project tenders, personnel files, environmental impact studies, and even a citizen's complaint about noise and excessive dust, analysts concluded that in the mountains near the city of Mucheng, about 112 kilometers southwest of the provincial capital of Sichuan, Chengdu, a prototype naval propulsion reactor was being constructed.
The reactor, which procurement documents suggest will soon be operational, is located in a new unit at Base 909, where there are six other operational, decommissioned, or under-construction reactors, according to the analysis mentioned.
The base is under the control of the China Nuclear Energy Institute, a subsidiary of the China National Nuclear Corporation, responsible for reactor engineering and testing.
Satellite images taken from 2020 to 2023 showed that several homes were demolished, and construction of water supply infrastructure at the reactor construction unit had begun.
Contracts for steam generators and turbine pumps indicate that the project involves a pressurized water reactor with a secondary circuit, consistent with naval propulsion reactors, researchers say.
An environmental impact report names Project Longwei a "construction project for national defense" classified as "secret."
However, the research does not provide clues as to when a Chinese nuclear-powered aircraft carrier could be built and become operational.
China Enters an Exclusive Club
The Chinese navy has modernized rapidly, and adding a nuclear-powered ship to its fleet would be a major step in Beijing's ambitions to create a maritime force capable of operating far from China, posing a greater challenge to the United States.
"Nuclear-powered aircraft carriers would place China in the exclusive ranks of first-class naval powers, a group currently limited to the United States and France," said Tong Zhao, a senior member at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.
"Operating a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier is an exclusive club that China appears to be joining," confirmed Jeffrey Lewis, a professor at Middlebury and one of the project's researchers.
China's first aircraft carrier, commissioned in 2012, was a reconfigured Soviet ship, and the second was built in China but based on the Soviet design. Both ships, named Liaoning and Shandong, use a launch method similar to "ski jumps," with a ramp at the end of a short runway to assist planes in taking off.
Fujian, launched in 2022, is the country's third aircraft carrier, but the first designed and built locally.
It uses an electromagnetic launch system like those developed and used by the US Navy. All three aircraft carriers have conventional propulsion.
Fujian recently participated in tests of the new Chinese J-35 fighter jet.
Fujian didn't even start testing in March when Yuan Huazhi, the political commissar of the Chinese People's Liberation Army, confirmed the construction of a fourth carrier. When asked if it will be nuclear-powered, the official said an announcement will be made, but this information has not been made public.
Matthew Funaiole, a senior researcher at the China Power Project of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, doubts that China's next aircraft carrier will be nuclear-powered. Instead, he expects the country's fourth carrier to focus on optimizing Fujian's design.
The Chinese have taken a progressive approach to developing their carriers, with "ambitions that will evolve over time," said Nick Childs, a senior researcher for naval forces and maritime security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. "So far, their deployment has been quite cautious, remaining largely within shore support range but projecting influence and to some extent constraint in their nearby waters," he explained.
What Will Beijing Do with a Nuclear-Powered Aircraft Carrier
It takes several years to build and commission an aircraft carrier, but developing nuclear propulsion for the next generation of warships would give China more power to operate advanced systems such as electromagnetic launchers, radars, and new weapons, said Childs.
"In addition to avoiding the need for the vessel to be regularly refueled and thus giving it a much greater range of action, nuclear power means that, with no need to transport fuel for the ship, there will be room on board for fuel and weapons for its aircraft, extending their capabilities," he explained.
"Much will depend on the overall size of the next carrier, but adding nuclear power will represent a significant step in China's carrier development, with a ship more comparable to US Navy carriers," Childs added.
Tong Zhao from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said that nuclear-powered aircraft carriers will provide the Chinese military with "greater flexibility and resilience to operate around strategic hotspots, especially along the first island chain, where most of China's disputed territories are located."
The first island chain is an extensive area along the coasts of Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines, starting from Malaysia and Borneo to the Kuril archipelago near Russia's waters, and includes Taiwan, an island claimed by China.
The United States is required by domestic law to provide Taiwan with enough weapons to deter a Chinese invasion and could offer Taipei assistance from its Pacific bases in the event of a Chinese attack or blockade. Tensions have also escalated in the South China Sea between China and neighboring nations over territorial disputes and maritime claims.
"These aircraft carriers could also extend Chinese operations further into the Western Pacific, further challenging the ability of the US military to intervene in regional issues that China considers best resolved only by countries in the region," Zhao said.
US Dominates Oceans, but China is Catching Up Strong
Chinese President Xi Jinping has tasked defense officials with building a "first-class" fleet, aiming for China to become a maritime power.
The most recent national defense strategy program, from 2019, showed that the Chinese navy is adapting to strategic requirements by "accelerating the transition of its tasks from defense in nearby seas to protection missions in distant seas."
The Chinese military navy is already the largest in the world, with over 370 ships and submarines.
China also prides itself on its shipbuilding capabilities - its shipyards build hundreds of ships annually, while the United States builds only five per year or even fewer, according to a report by the US Congress issued late last year.
However, the Chinese navy still lags behind the US Navy in many respects.
Among other advantages, the US currently has 11 nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, allowing them to sustain multiple deployed strike groups worldwide at any given time, including in the Indo-Pacific region.
However, the Pentagon is increasingly concerned about the rapid modernization of the Chinese fleet, including the design and construction of new aircraft carriers.
T.D.