After three lost weeks, we entered the normal constitutional logic with the designated prime minister negotiating the program and team he assumes and will politically account for.
The designation as prime minister proposal came after a crisis in the relationship with the president regarding the VAT increase. In the end, according to all sources, he maintained his essential prerogative to decide on the measures to be implemented.
The VAT issue was essential even more politically than fiscally. A prime minister who accepts the position along with the prohibition to implement a measure he considers essential is a handicapped prime minister from the start.
What would have been even more serious for Ilie Bolojan, the prime minister of a nightmare coalition, in an economic nightmare situation, with only a minor party supporting the government, not even whole – or do we somehow believe that the Thuma Hubert group wishes him well? – and facing an immense socialist octopus.
That the general VAT will be increased in October, and the special rates from August 1 are certainly concessions for the president to somewhat honorably fulfill the risky promise from the campaign. At the same time, through this crisis and postponement, the president has distanced himself from the matter, and when the increase occurs, it will be exclusively the prime minister’s problem.
But the decision remains with the prime minister, which is essential for the authority he starts with, but also for his responsibility.
### Drumul va fi teribil
On the one hand, it is about economic recovery, of course. The measures will be difficult to implement, they will be much more complicated, and two percentage points of VAT would probably be much less felt than those that will directly hit the economy, in the profit and dividends area.
When the reforms begin, and I have no doubt that Ilie Bolojan will tackle them as in Oradea, in Bihor, in the Senate, it will lead to many howls, complications, and frustrations.
It needs to be analyzed where to cut, how much to cut, what compensations need to be paid according to contracts to lay off some people. It’s easy to put some numbers on screens, but it’s much more complicated to do what can prove to have very high costs, including financial ones.
I have seen euphoric interpretations of the ECOFIN conclusions from Friday. The official statement is not as cheerful and puts pressure on the future government, the action plan must be submitted by July 8, and the line will be drawn in October. Rating agencies are also preparing for evaluation.
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The social and political costs will be immense, and the one who will pay for them is the prime minister. Ilie Bolojan has always asked for authority, team, and majority for this position. He will have the latter at the vote in Parliament. But the rest? Certainly, his authority is undermined by the term limit.
### Va fi PSD partener cu adevărat până atunci?
So far, in the three weeks, the only one who has truly played strategically was the Grindeanu-Ciolacu group, fighting for political survival and retaining power within the PSD after electoral disasters. Occupying key positions in the Romanian state is an essential tactic for this objective, but also for their own prosperity, of course.
Mr. Grindeanu will go to the head of the Chamber of Deputies, the position that practically sets the pace of legislation. In the Government, they kept the Ministry of Justice, which next year will propose the chief prosecutors, issue all opinions, and is a member of the CSM.
Ministries with money will not be many, Development, for example, will be more of an empty shell. But Transport, Agriculture, and Health will have funds. At Transport, Grindeanu’s man will go, at Agriculture, Stănescu’s man is supported to remain, and in Health, the fight is to impose Ciolacu’s trusted man, Carmen Orban, who will control the game and the money.
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After the play of competitions at the PSD, will Mr. Bolojan have the right of veto on the names of the ministers from this party?
But it’s not just about ministries. The division includes others, even more valuable. Mihai Busuioc, the current head of the Court of Auditors, is prepared for the Constitutional Court, and for the SIE, discussions are ongoing about ASF chief, Alexandru Petrescu, moved around by Marcel Ciolacu in various key positions over time.
Ilie Bolojan has limited leverage to stop this octopus that PSD is spreading again. But he will pay for it, including its resistance to anti-clientelistic reforms. The prime minister will become the central figure of the next period, with few levers and immense risks.
### Îi va fi președintele un partener autentic, după cum a promis?
We can only hope. Their already complicated constitutional relationship started badly, with a power struggle. The president has not engaged in any visible struggle with the PSD, which has obtained almost everything it wanted, including the rotation.
His struggle was with Bolojan. Does Mr. Dan want Ilie Bolojan to succeed? It remains to be seen. But, in general, in politics, no one prays for the success of rivals.
And Mr. Bolojan will either fail and pay with his political career, or, almost miraculously, he will succeed, and then he will become the number one political figure in Romania, unstoppable.