Romania continues to have the highest annual inflation rate in the European Union, even though the pace of price growth slowed slightly in June. According to data published by Eurostat on Friday, Romania’s annual inflation was 9.2%, over three times the EU average, which dropped to 2.9%.
Data from the European Union’s Statistical Office (Eurostat) shows that annual inflation in the EU decreased from 3.3% in May to 2.9% in June, while in the euro area it decreased from 3.2% to 2.8%.
Opposite to Romania were Sweden, with an inflation rate of 1%, Czechia (1.1%), and Denmark (1.8%). After Romania, the highest inflation rates were recorded in Lithuania (5.4%) and Bulgaria.
Compared to May, annual inflation decreased in 22 member states, including Romania, where the indicator dropped from 9.7% to 9.2%. It remained unchanged in three states and increased in two.
Services and energy fueled inflation in the euro area
In the euro area, the largest contribution to annual inflation came from the services sector, adding 1.51 percentage points.
This was followed by energy, with 0.77 percentage points, and food, alcohol, and tobacco, with 0.29 percentage points.
INS: National-level calculated inflation was 10.4%
Eurostat's data differs from that published by the National Institute of Statistics (INS) as the two institutions use different calculation methodologies.
According to INS, the annual inflation rate in Romania was 10.4% in June, down from 10.9% in May.
The highest price increases were recorded in services, where prices rose by 13.67% compared to the same month last year. Non-food goods increased by 12.29%, and food by 5.75%.
Among food products, the highest price increase was reported for coffee, which rose by 19.9%. This was followed by eggs, with an increase of 13.66%, and cow's milk, with 12.13%.
BNR: Inflation expected to decrease to 5.5% by the end of the year
The National Bank of Romania estimates that inflation will decrease to 5.5% by the end of 2026, after revising its forecast upwards from the previous estimate of 3.9%. For the end of 2027, the central bank anticipates inflation of 2.9%.
BNR Governor Mugur Isarescu stated that a mistaken impression has been created in the public space that the central bank forecasts a strong acceleration of inflation.
"Inflation is halving, from almost 11% to around 5%. (...) It will increase until July, probably up to 11%, but the increases are small because then, in July, August, and September, we will already have inflation of around 6%, and towards the end of the year, 5% and something," Isarescu said.
The governor emphasized that these estimates depend on developments in the Middle East and the existence of a climate of political and governmental stability in Romania.
"We might not be champions in inflation in the autumn. We want this, but it doesn't depend only on us," added Mugur Isarescu.